Well if we look at SMR with a with a market cap od circa $180,000,000. Annual production at around 1 - 1.25 million tonnes. Current PE, somewhere around 12. Yes they have done very well however from an operations stand point we aren't really comparing apples with apples when it comes to comparing that with BRL. Firstly we have a substantial domestic operation with near $12,000,000 forecast to be generated during FY17/fy18, then there's a further ~$17,000,000 being generated within the joint venture (that is BRL's share). So in the event that coking coal prices fall substantially BRL will continue to generate near $30,000,000 domestically which would quite easily support the market cap of today and potentially provide a steady dividend. Then there's Stockton which from the AGM at the time we were receiving 80% of the benchmark price of US $190 per tonne which puts us at around ~ $110 - $120 profit per tonne. So thats another $70-80,000,000 into the coffers for BRL. From the last SMR presentation FOB costs per tonne were AUD $110 per tonne. Richard confirmed at the AGM that we are sitting at around NZD$96 per tonne. So in kiwi dollars we have lower costs by nearly $25 per tonne, with a plan in place to reduce those costs to $80 per tonne by June 2018. What Im trying to point out is that we are incredibly cheap at this point in time and even if were were to increase in value to say $500,000,000 that's still only a forward looking PE of about 5. Even with a fully diluted register of 1.9B shares on issue , that's a share price of around 25 cents. SMR are also an incredibly convincing buy at this point in time as they are planning in the next few years to move to 3MT annual production. My only concern is that they are fully at the mercy of international coal prices with seemingly high costs.
Sorry for the novel, but that's what happens when I see screaming bargains out there. I am prepared to sit tight and wait for value to truly be realized. The question is anyone else?
Always DYOR.
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