Per tonne: $1400 market price subtract processing of $450, add credit of $25, gives a margin per tonne of $975 for spodumene.
Recovery tonnage = 5,000,000Tpa multiplied by 0.14 for spodumene recovery, leaving 700,000 tonnes.
Recovery tonnage multiplied by margin per tonne multiplied by an efficiency of throughput of 75% divided by a 0.8 exchange rate.
$975 x 700,000 x0.75 x 0.8 = $AUD EBITDA of $639,800,000
EBITDA x EBIT ratio of 10 subtract $700,000,000 debt, divided by shares on issue of 1.85b gives you $3.10
There are more onerous cases, such as EBIT ratio of 7, an exchange rate of 0.9 etc, but I think this is a pretty conservative and realistic value?
Fundamental Analysis, page-3
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