That really is the issue and why the anti-coalers have fairies at the bottom of the garden if they think the developing countries are going to reduce their use of coal. That there will be another 2 to 3 billion potential new customers on our planet in the next few decades, according to demographers, probably indicates that apart from fairies they have rocks in the head also:
This sort of data should wake the dreamers up to the reality that the 3rd world and developing countries aren't going to play games with their plans for lifting their billions out of poverty.
RESERVES
Coal reserves are available in almost every country worldwide, with recoverable reserves in around 70 countries. At current production levels, proven coal reserves are estimated to last 147 years. In contrast, proven oil and gas reserves are equivalent to around 41 and 63 years at current production levels respectively. Over 68% of oil and 67% of gas reserves are concentrated in the Middle East and Russia.
And this sobering trend in coal usage:
GLOBAL (WORLD) HARD COAL CONSUMPTION
1986 - 3232 MT
1996 - 3773 MT
2006 - 5339 MT (estimated)
That is about a 40% increase in the last 10 years with another 500 to 1000 coal fired Chinese power stations in the planning and/or construction phase. Then there is India that has similar ambitions and goals for its approx 1.1 billion population. And a per capita GDP that ranks 118th in the world. That’s without the dozens of countries in Asia and Africa that also want to join the first world, by the same well proven route.
But that is only power generation. Industrialisation also needs steel so 13% of coal production is used, at present, to make coke for the steel making furnaces.
Which leads us to the conclusion that Howard is right on track with reality. And certainly not with the fairies on this issue.
