forrestgump, page-5

re: forrestgump / ridge Hi Shelly,

They have FDA approval for Qantiferon Mk1 which is good enough for the US and some of Europe but with MkII (Gold) just around the corner it seems some agencies in the US have been loath to stock up - there are 15m tests p.a. in the US with 2 -3m in the military alone (the military want Qantiferon and military personnel where part of the initial test - they have been busy on other priorities in recent months). The milestone required in Japan if formal approval of Qantiferon Gold which should be forthcoming.

'Mr tb' in Japan who is very influential is already using it under the counter and they are desperate for formal approval. Because of the problems in Japan and the lack of accuracy of the Mantoux test many Japanese are having regular X-ray checks which will not be required in the future (people are worried about excess radiation exposure). Japan, being a centrally controlled country can be expect to move quickly accross the board to adopt Qantifereon. I am talking months for approval which could in fact be weeks.

As for revenue and profit, whether they notch 10,20,30 or 40m test sales p.a. in say two years is the multi million dollar question. For the sake of conservatitism it would be wise to use $5. profit per test after all marketing, administration and r & d costs. So lets take a low sales figure of 10m tests p.a. in two years time; that would equate to an EBIT of $50. and a NOPAT of around $35m: it would be realistic to think of a high future growth stock on a P.E. of twenty (maybe even more, but lets stick to twenty) which would translate to a capitalisation of $700m which in turn would translate to a share price of the order of $8ish and at that level there would still be a lot of share price growth potential.

Hope that helps.