Its December 2012, Iron Ore benchmark prices are US$140/t, you lend USD$325m to a little Atlas Iron at LIBOR + 7% (Bargain!) to fund development to 12mpta (at margins of 50%+ what an investment!). Throw forward 2 years and iron ore is at US$60/t and declining and atlas are in negative margins. The value of the company is worth less than the USD$325m that you lent. You've been burnt and with prices declining you don't know if you'll see any of your investment back. To keep hopes alive you forfeit a large sum of your borrowings for equity as you know bankruptcy is not the answer.
As iron ore prices finally jump in Nov/Dec 2016 you cash out as much of your investment as you can (Bain cashing in 500m shares, Marathon cashing in 500m shares). Prices continue up and in early 2017, BGC and Glencore bail as well as the outlook for IO is for it to decline. Bain and WAMCO continue to reduce positions in early-mid 2017, they want their US$325m back.
Jump forward and IO is back, back to US$75m/t, Bain and WAMCO are scarred - they lent at US$140/t and they just want their money back - they forfeited their debt for equity and are just happy to see their money back.. they are running for the doors... not because of what they see in front of them but because of the scars they hold from the past. That is why they are selling - because of the scars of the past, they cannot see the potential of the future. It's only human nature to let something go that caused you so much pain in the past. One persons trash is another's treasure. GL out there uqxxu.
AGO Price at posting:
3.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
