Hi,
OK to much to read so I didn't even bother... Sorry I just could not resist that one. (Just kidding)
No need to argue on this, as I said all I wanted to do was balance out 1 sided figures used as evidence for advise that is not warranted until the the offer is actually on the table!
I understand and appreciate your arguments, particularly regarding Pacific Road walking away. It still is a concern that warrants any prospective investor having a good answer for. I discussed a few of my thoughts, regarding their underwriting an unpopular capital raising. I think the capital raising was unpopular because the financing deal was not finalised, and the rest of us had no proof of any improvement over the quarter.
There are two parts to the solution, the funding arrangement and the capital raising. I wait to see the details of both, and more details on the finances before I decide. Previously they had everything will be fine because there will be an improvement in ... (everything) next quarter. It was a big ask after many disappointments. Now they have finally shown a (possible) improvement if they fill in all the gaps still, it is easier to believe they can keep up what they have already shown, than do something they have only promised.
What I want to see most of all is the refinancing deal, announced only when it is done and dusted so there are no further questions or uncertainties in the market. Pacific road were in to make a profit as much as they could. The debtors are in it to get their money back, and I want to know how they rate their chances from continuing operations vs VA. Do they have the confidence to give BLK plenty of room, or are they grabbing each cent as it comes in the door?
You comment again on last quarters AISC as do others, and I agree it was bad for them not to include it on the report, however I do not think it had any influence on sophisticated investors. The AISC margin multiplied by the production is just too simple, it is not consistent between miners and quarterlies. It is deceptively easy for investors to believe in, but if you compare this with the cash profit you find that there is a difference between the AISC margin and what cash they actually make, and even worse this varies widely between gold miners. AISC is useful and much better than cash values reported before, but it does not tell the full story.
BLK's last quarterly shows the cash movement, operational proffit, capital and investment and financial expenditure. These figures tell you a much better picture of what is actually happening, and any sophisticated investor or fund will be looking at these first. If anything the AISC tells you if a goldie is trying to hide anything or pimp their results. After saying all this I would expect they will report the last quarters AISC this quarter when it comes.
If it comes down to the Mums and Dads investors saving the sinking ship then I will certainly not be recommending it. However there should not be Mums and Dads investors in a stock like this to start with, unless it is with 1-5% of their portfolio, so even VA is only a 5% loss in their portfolio. Anything else is just (I am very sorry if I offend) irresponsible to advise them otherwise.
Let's discuss the quarterly on its own merits, or compare it to the forecast from last quarter to see what has changed. It can tell us the best we can expect and we already know the worst (VA). It can not be used to justify a decision on a deal that is not on the table yet so why waste time there?
I did like the fact they informed us holders so promptly and in plenty of time to digest (I like my quarterlies with single malt scotch whisky) before any decision needs to be made.
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