Undeniable, page-27

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tdubs

197 Posts.

77

12/01/18

15:15

Post #: 30262265
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Originally posted by Kfann ↑

Hi all,

The revenue growth data from the US is what the risk managers have, historically, been concerned with. Will there be sufficient revenue growth/momentum to push the return on this US$30m investment undeniably and irreversibly to positive territory?

"Yes" is now the only possible answer.

I, like other PI's and fundies, will be awaiting the half yearly to update the empirical impact of this upon cash flow and balance sheet to assess the true quality of this growth.

But I'm pretty sure I'll just be confirming that the financial metrics are moving strongly in the right direction.

The next medium term goal that I'll be assessing this investment against are its share and technology leadership within the nascent 3D market; the execution of its competitive strategy.

Depending on how aggressive their marketing and pricing strategy is, I (and subject to some discussion with management/analysts) believe they could readily attain a US ACV of US$80-100m pa within 4 years; eclipsing my estimated Australiasian ACV of A$75-80m.

It is pure personal preference (not a science) in assigning valuation multiples to revenues and EBITDA....so I'll let you do yours.

Yet my models are suggesting a valuation range of A$670-830m within 2 years. A$1.60-A$2.00 fully diluted.

My gut, however, thinks this could be quite conservative.

Cheers,

Expand

Aggressive on the Aus ACV.

Cash burn was a lot higher than what the risk managers expected - they're getting revenue traction in the States but paying through the roof for it..

NEA Price at posting: 67.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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