I think they will win in the end, Dave. The Russians crawled away with their tails between their legs after 9 years of fighting to no avail.Why did the Coalition think it would be a breeze?
Your quoted "think tank" said: ""Its ability to establish a presence throughout the country is now proven beyond doubt," it said. "
Why? Because most Taliban are Afghans! Remember,they were the duly elected (by the people) and legal government of Afghanistan prior to the invasion, and perceive themselves as fighting an invading force. It boils down to the "hearts & minds" of the people. Most Afghans recently polled said they preferred the repressive Taliban to the occupying forces, notably the Americans. The stated reason was that under the Taliban, every woman & child was safe to walk the streets, whereas the occupiers bomb, shoot & kill civilians.
As in Iraq, you cant win the people over by shooting them or blowing them up.All those news reports of Taliban & Al Qaeda gatherings successfully attacked & killed, that turn out to be motorists queuing for petrol at a garage, or a wedding ceremony terminated with extreme prejudice from the air.
And they wonder why the Taliban are succeeding?
At this rate the coalition cant win while the last Afghan is still standing, because with every bungle costing civilian lives, the Taliban wins support, and the coalition loses support.
cheers
GZ
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