taliban winning in afghanistan, page-26

I hope you are correct in your position that AQ has essentially been routed and that the real threat "now be handled to a large extent by rigorous nation by nation policing, backed up by international sharing of intelligence."

I do hold the view that the great threat still remains, although I am not sure it is exactly what the "Bush, Rudd, Howard line" is, or exactly what that line is.
Indeed much of their stated "line" is more to do with maintaining public opinion than an precise expression of their views or an expression of the reality that they might see.

It is not so much AQ that I see is the ultimate threat but the ideology they promote and the ease of exploiting this ideology throughout the world. AQ and osama are just convenient and most visible and current flag-bearers of this ideology.
A defeat of AQ means very little in the bigger picture, they are for the most part a collection of misfits who have attracted enough financing and adherents to make them dangerous.

Although there is a significant complexity to the situation that tends to make it difficult to explain in a few short posts, I will give a small example why I expect that the US presence will be maintained in Iraq for not only the foreseeable future but essentially for the long term.

1/ The main prize that Iraq represents is in the oil reserves. I seem to remember an article that put the exploitable value of oil Iraq reserves over the expected lifetime of the reserves at some $30 trillion (of course this is an estimate that could be out by an order of magnitude). The US will never allow Iraq to again become hostile or uncooperative to the western world, and will never allow this oil reserve to fall under control of any group that forms a significant threat to either the flow of this oil, or the goals of the western world.
When you compare the $1 trillion or so expected cost of the war, even if the oil reserves are out by a significant amount, the war is an economic bargain for the US and the western world. For the US, the free and commercial flow of the oil is important rather than the ownership of it.


2/ Iraq has a geographic strategically central position in the middle east. It can serve as a monitoring station,force projection platform or even just a real and close threat to anywhere in the middle east, but most particularly the remaining two major targets in the middle east of Iran and Syria.

3/ If you consider the cases for comparison of Germany and Japan, where the US decided to reform the political system to remove the threat potential. 50 years after the conflict as ended the US military is still stationed in these two countries. When the US goes in in this fashion, they do not leave quickly. They stay for a long, long time, of the order of generations. My guess is the the largest US embassy in the world currently being build in Iraq is some part of a plan of long term stationing of troops as is done in germany and Japan. And the imperative to maintain the free flow of oil will reinforce this trend

4/ AQ is just a current convenient flag-carrier for political islam, or islamofacsism. There is an entire generation and potentially future generations of children being brought up indoctrinated or brain-washed in this poisonous ideology in a number of countries in the Middlee east and Asia. This is by design not too dissimilar to the Hilter youth and the Bushido/Emperor as God indoctrination systems of Germany and Japan pre-WW2.
The obvious idea is to create generation after generation of warriors driven by an ideology to engage in religious conflict with the infidels.
Whatever happens with AQ, a portion of the children will grow up as damaged goods and will devote significant parts of their lives to jihad with the goal of the death of all infidels and the establishment of the worldwide califate.
The US military will remain a significant presence in Iraq and other countries in the middle east for a long time even if only to engage and eliminate these poor damaged youth who are unable to recover from the brainwashing. It will be a military machine , increasing robotic and remote controlled, for these unfortunates to grind their bodies against.

5/ The US must take control of elements of the education system and eliminate the anti-western death-cult aspects of the current madrassas and other educational organs. This control will need to be in place for at least a generation, although the control may be more a casual monitoring as time goes on.

Thats all for now, as I am tired of typing. There is of course a significant further complexity but this serves as a starting point and outline of some ideas.