Subs,
Here's the most recent I have from 5 January 2018. Extracted from Mac Wealth Research paper
Mixed earnings impacts for battery stocks
FX changes have a positive FY18 earnings impact for producers GXY (Dec Y/E) and NMT but
drive modest downgrades in FY19 and FY20. We note that we do not expect PLS to generate any
earnings in FY18 and AJM to be loss making in both FY18 and FY19 with only modest earnings
beyond this. Minor model adjustments result in some minor changes to our forecasts for SYR.
Cuts to CY17 estimate and increase in CY18 forecast for ORE reflect guidance on realised
pricing.
Only two recommendation changes in our battery materials coverage
We make only two recommendation changes to our battery materials coverage downgrading NMT
to Neutral from Outperform and ORE from Neutral to Underperform. Rolling our NPV forward
resulting modest target price upgrades to GXY, PLS, AJM and NMT. Rolling our valuation of SYR
forward and reducing the WACC we use for our valuation of the downstream BAM business
results in a 27% increase in our target price and we maintain our Neutral recommendation.
Target price and recommendation changes
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
| 1 |
Company |
Code |
Rating - old |
Rating - New |
Share price |
Target - old |
Target - new |
Change |
TSR |
| 2 |
Galaxy Resource |
GXY |
Neutral |
Neutral |
$ 3.96 |
$ 4.00 |
$ 4.00 |
0% |
1% |
| 3 |
Pilbara Minerals |
PLS |
Neutral |
Neutral |
$ 1.18 |
$ 1.15 |
$ 1.25 |
9% |
6% |
| 4 |
Orocobre |
ORE |
Neutral |
Underperform |
$ 7.00 |
$ 4.97 |
$ 6.50 |
31% |
-7% |
| 5 |
Altura Mining |
AJM |
Underperform |
Underperform |
$ 0.48 |
$ 0.20 |
$ 0.25 |
20% |
-48% |
| 6 |
Neometals |
NMT |
Outperform |
Neutral |
$ 0.45 |
$ 0.40 |
$ 0.40 |
0% |
-11% |
| 7 |
Syrah Resources |
SYR |
Neutral |
Neutral |
$ 4.73 |
$ 3.60 |
$ 4.70 |
27% |
-1% |
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Anything over the $6 mark, seems a reasonable target to attain in the year ahead. Or was that M Fool?
