Heres my take on ARVs valuation with current knowledge.
Prior to conglomerate bubble ARV was trading at around 6c. At its peak it traded at 59c in the middle of a bubble. So the conglomerate was valued at 53c.
At that time we were looking at 10m of conglomerate @15g/tonne, a conservative estimate at the time.
Today we might be looking at a seam 400 mm thick below 9.6m grading at say 2g/tonne.
Lets say we only want to target the rich seam and just stockpile or leave the lower grade stuff.
So we process the lowest 2m of stuff. That would necessarily involve taking some basement rock that doesnt have gold in it, but we will ignore that and say we are taking 400mm@15g/tonne plus 1600mm @ 2 g/ tonne, giving an overall grade of 4.6g/tonne....lets say 5 g/tonne for easy maths.
So thats 1/3 the grade. But we are not mining 10metres, now 2 metres. Our ore body is 1/5th the size. So that means 1/15th of the gold.
Divide 53 c, the conglomerate gold valuation by the market by 15 =3.5c. Add 6c for ARVs other projects =9.5c.
Thats ARVs valuation if the conglomerate gold is valued in a bubble. Well its not in a bubble at present, meaning 3.5c might be too high. But we will still use 3.5c to account for any progress made with ARVs non conglomerate projects.
9.5 cents.
Makes present SP look pretty good!
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