You have to get ethics permission to do experiments like this on people at a university. Not in the market. UBS is CONFIDENT. Deutsch is confident. It is a confidence game. Really there is a very thin line separating an illegal CON and a legal one. However, as they drill into us in psychology:
Confidence does not equal competence. Generally, too much confidence is generally an indicator that someone is wrong or doesn't actually know what they are doing or talking about.
Interesting too and fro here since the price dropped. Love watching the emotions as the price spikes and crashes. I could go and find many a post where people say 'I wish the price would drop so I can buy more'. Well it has, are you buying more?
People are understandably unsure. Fair enough we don't know. But all that UBS and co. have to make you believe is that they know...better. As the link to Asch's experiment shows - people don't like it when they are not going with the 'authority'. An authority can take many forms. Without a forum like this to touch base with each other, we would be in even more sway of the authority of those that command vast wealth and the media. These two together, in many regards are far stronger social influence than a small group of people in an experiment, as they carry the weight of the authority of status, class, wealth...and people feel incredibly uneasy when they go against the group dynamic/consensus...."There must be a reason why they are saying what they're saying...there must!?!? Well without going into truths and untruths. Yes, there is a reason - they want your/other people's money so they can get wealthier. Remember that is the first and only rule if necessary. The rest is smoke and mirrors.
I'm not a big fan of shorting either but on the other hand I get to buy more shares and speak my mind about how long I think the line really is. So I've been buying shares which came down over $1 since the high.
@Cadel kindly did some PE calculations and I saw similar figures that someone had simultaneously done on another GXY thread with a similar outcome of forward PE of 10. Even if it was 25, I'd be happy with the prospects of GXY.
My 'bet' is on disruption and in this SQM scenario or whoever else will be a drop in the ocean. That is my line and anyone can tell me the future is a different "length, shape and size" until the cows come home. I will listen when the evidence shows a different outcome. UBS, Deutsch don't primarily do evidence. Their primary concern is MAKING MONEY. Whose money - YOUR MONEY.
The big boys are screaming at you that the line on the page is a different length from what the evidence in front of your eyes is telling you. Unlike Asch's conformity experiment you don't have to feel out of place surrounded by people in the same room who are saying otherwise. Unlike Asch's conformity experiment, if you buy and GXY goes to the wall, you have a lot more to lose than just that uneasy feeling of going against the group. However, none of this changes the length of the line.
The psychological manipulation that started with Edward Bernay's (nephew of Freud) PR firm and his 'Torches of Freedom' in the early 20th century has grown up since then. 100 years later, the psychological tricks that human beings are subject to now are incredibly sophisticated. Most do not stand much chance and most are ignorant about the reasons they make the decisions they do...that is the way the people that have learnt these dark arts for the purposes of manipulation want it.
I am not saying buy or sell. But for the record, I've been buying nearly every day since this dropped to high $3 as I haven't spent over a year researching this disruption to just 'be told' by anyone that all my efforts are simply wrong...because they say so.
Better questions: Who are they? Are their confederates around this table working against your sanity/best interests? Keeping in mind that the corrupt and fiendish place that is modern day capitalism will not tell you any truths. Just want they want you to hear. Like the JFK assassination, you will probably never know for sure who is shooting at you. What you can be pretty pretty sure of is that SOMEONE is trying to play you. They know who you are and they probably have pretty good information on you...it doesn't have to be personal information. Just a general statistic that a certain percentage of people do 'this' under these conditions.
The deck is stacked, no doubt. The only sure way to play is to do your research and then take the risk or not.
No one knows the future. Unfortunately this immense uncertainty is in the favour of those that own the game. They are the house and they don't care about you.
