Future looking. 4C has costs estimated of $11.8m. Last 4 4cs has been 99% accurate in forecasts being realised. Assuming QoQ revenue trend of 26% and tight revenue to receipts conversion (which is demonstrated in last few qtrs), the operating CF gap widens to -$3.8m. This is backwards to getting to breakeven.
The cost uplift is mostly staff, about $2m. Could be good to accelerate future sales but is adds the need to generate $8m more revenue/cash over CY18 above the $33m target which breakeven is predicated on. Including today's, last 3 qtr reports have operating cashflow in mid $3m range (sideways trend) plus some PPE/Business investment costs (which are probably capitalised to make it easier to EBITDA breakeven on P&L accrual). AHZ is spending its growth effectively. On-track to do the same next qtr. Not quite the trend or makings of breakeven by CY18 end.
The presentations tell one happy breakeven story (via accrual P&L), the CF statements are telling another. That story is one of a CR by year end or need to lever up more or pull off a good deal on a dud vaccine if they keep ramping expenses in line with topline growth. Can only make breakeven if there is a cost freeze from now on i.e. never spend more than 11.80m per quarter. Breakeven by CY18 end is possible but not as likely as some may believe. I rate it as 32% likely.
Anyone see this discrepancy between the Sept and Dec qtr reports?
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Also today's report is using QoQ comps, last report was PcP. Also in the last one htey had underlyign revenue figure ($5.3m revenue) which was sued to show better growth as statutory was $5.0m. In today's, they comped the quarter's $6.3m revenue against the statutory ($5.0m). If you do a proper comp to the underlying, growth was instead 19%.
(20min delay)