It's clear that I have been one of the most vocal critics of the current management, as well as the timing of this particular SPP. But I think it's a bit early to forecast where the SP will end up after the issue. This will largely depend on the second CSG well result, which is due in the next few days. If they report a hot thick coal, then we could be looking at a fairly significant improvement of its underlying reserve as well as valuation.
Whilst there may be some short term weakness in the stock, I suspect we may just be turning the corner with this stock. Afterall, why would Eddie Smith and Challenger Fin Services (JPM) bought up more shares recently, with Challenger taking up a susbtantial position? The Western Margin Oil Fairway may actually contain more than just hot air from Kopschef's mouth. The real excitment will come when they drill the Warhawk prospect - which if found to contain the same reservoir pressure and a common LKO, may point to a large field with some 8MBO recoverables.
There will be serious dilution impact from the current issue, but in return, we'll be exposed to quite a large number of drill, not to mention the 7 free-carried wells in ATP752 with Santos.
I'm still wanting the current board to be removed, but I'm also quietly optimistic that after 3 years of personal frustration with this stock, 2008 should provide some joy for the long term suffering holders.
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