ann. out, page-3

Market seems to have over-reacted to the no oil news. Oil was always unlikely and the big potential remains with the CBM which is looking good. Normally they pump the water out and then open up the hole. This will give an idea of productivity of the formation.Productivity can then be enhanced by fraccing the well bore, which fractures or cracks the surrounding formation allowing much more gas to flow out.Right now I rate the chance of success at better than 50% and given that if it is, then we should see at least a five bagger. So my analysis is that success will initially yield a sp of at least 30cents but more over time, with the chance of success being 55 to 60% . If it was all a big failure then the sp would probably hit 4 cents until their next oil expln well, but I rate the chance of failure at 40-45%.Summary is, better then even chance of a five bagger. Less than even chance of losing 30% of investment but will probably get investment back over time.I am spending most of my annual bonus accumulating at current prices and below.
Occam