You've referred to the two completely disparate forces in the one post. Both of which I'm grappling with to see whether I jump in at relisting or wait and see.
The first, HAPA as an entity. This is pretty much who 1PG is now, and I venture a guess this is the whole invetsment here. The $20+ mil cash will likely be dedicated to that, so it's the fundamental valuation there I'm spending most of my time on. Valuing HAPA and teir potential has be taken under the assumption that 1PG and HAPA have fairly assessed its value, as per your numbers above. You've a $38 mil M.C. and that is what the company is worth fundamentally.
The second, is what's going to happen on open and in the first few months,
market sentiment alone.
MM stocks in favour, Euro market generally and Merchant's involvement all bullish signals. Biggest of all bearish signals, IMO, is the fact that this a very rare case on ASX, due to the cash you all have, where retailers have the opportunity to speculate on level playing field with all other investors: everyone's getting the same price at open. No seed, instos, sophs or funding discounts or con notes taking the shine off the upside.
But they aren't all that's there.
Bearishly, you have a stink from the 1PG experience, a
loose register whose make up you can only guess at (people that grew tired of suspension, people who have found another investment and just waiting to free the money, traders who got caught in the suspension, etc, etc...).
This part is pure guesswork, but that I believe the downward pressure will outweigh the upward pressure intially (it's what I believe not what I am stating will happen, so Disallowed rampers save your personal remirez-like rantings). Hence I'm emphasising my time on trying to discover where HAPA are at, and how far away from trading they are.
