Rick I think we all agree this is a tough game to play - it is great example of survival of the fittest imo.
To add to your point I've had 3 x 12h trades in the last 24 hours, 1 is still partially open, as follows:
The first was a buy and sell entry on the same 12h retest bar on the EJ. This bar was both a spike high and spike low retest, so entry both ways. Based on my stats I have optimised my position sizing further by defining 5 separate categories of this type of setup (spike retest), depending on whether or not they are also an inside bar or not, where the close of the setup bar is in relation to entry, whether or not it is a setup bar in both directions or just one direction, and finally whether price first swings the opposite direction before reversing back through my entry level. Based on these categories the lowest category is a 0.25% weighting, the highest is a 1.0% weighting.
The EJ showed an example where the setup was both ways. Buy entry hit 1st - the 1st entry in a double setup like this is weighted at 0.25%, and the 2nd entry if hit is weighted at 0.75% - and the buy entry stoploss was hit during the 1st 12 hours. This triggered the sell entry, which did hit its take profit level during that big swing for a 0.375% profit, but then on the double-whip reversal the sell entry stoploss was hit so a 0.375% loss. Net result for the EJ was a 0.25% loss.
The GU also had a retest setup (as shown) but this was only a buy direction setup. Being an inside bar with the close in the lowest quartile of the range (the furthest quartile from the buy entry at the high), this initially had a 0.5% weighting. But since price then hit the setup bar low forcing the bar of entry too be an outside bar or bullish engulfing bar in order for the entry level to be hit, the weighting was amended to 1.0% when that low was hit. Price then went on to make that big swing and the bar of entry has become a bullish engulfing bar, triggering the buy entry at the high, and indeed the take profit level was also hit. Thus this trade is so far 0.5% in profit from the closed take profit order, and the remaining 0.5% weight order remains open until 9pm tonight.
The result: -0.25% net on the EJ trades + 0.5% so far on the GU take profit = +0.5% profit plus/minus whatever happens to the remaining GU order.
Imo forex market price action forces us to be absolutely rigorous with our systems otherwise money is just stripped from us left, right and centre. What protects us is our money management practices while the market skims money from us in its multiple ways (I'll show another example of this skimming in another post), to keep us in the game until our systems hit their sweet spots and we make those profitable trades that pay for all the "taxes" the market charges us to participate.
