Restart Black Swan & Lake Johnston, page-2

I'd say zero chance.

For starters, the US$6.50 hurdle was based on a AUD:USD Fx of 0.70. With a current exchange rate of 0.79 that hurdle translates to ~US$7.35/lb. Best to think of the NP hurdle in terms of AUD (i.e. ~AU$9.30/lb. or ~AU$20,500/t). And it will likely need to stay at, or above, that level for more than 2 months to give management and financiers the confidence to pull the restart trigger/lend the money. And that's ignoring the lead times required to become operational once the restart trigger has been pulled. In reality, it's probably at least 12 months after the decision has been made. Plus factor in, say, 6 months for the NP above the hurdle price and you're most likely looking at, say, 18 months from when Ni pushes north of that price and stays there.