Nice presentation.
It is a pity they have such a high strip ratio in the first year (around 16:1) and its also high in the next two years (a bit over (9:1), otherwise GCY would be a no brainer. I suppose the workforce is fly-in/fly-out which would also add to costs, along with the higher cost of oil and labour since they first did their DFS.
I am not a believer in their AISC $A1000 figure, especially in the first 3 years of operation.
I think that in view of their $60m loan, high costs and other outlays they are going to struggle to make much money in the first year, unless they can access higher grade ore than what is in their LOM plan, and the next two years will also be high cost (but somewhat improved) years. Consequently there is the potential for GCY to struggle badly for some years while the interest on the loan and its repayment becomes a burden that is reflected in a low share price.
Basically I see GCY as being reliant for medium term success on either a much higher AUD POG or significant luck in accessing higher grade/lower cost ore near their mine. In the near term for most of this year there is not much reason to own them since I do not see the AUD POG doing anything much and even if they hit some high grade intercepts it would be many months before they could confirm what that would do for their production profile.
Good luck all.
loki (I am just saying be careful not to wear rose coloured glasses around goldies. Neither GCY nor KIN are sure things, but circumstances may change to make them more attractive.)
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$1.10 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $1.224B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.12 | $1.14 | $1.09 | $5.462M | 4.924M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 90424 | $1.09 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.11 | 225875 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 56646 | 1.090 |
1 | 25000 | 1.085 |
1 | 9000 | 1.080 |
4 | 22281 | 1.075 |
4 | 54382 | 1.070 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.110 | 16500 | 1 |
1.120 | 8850 | 1 |
1.140 | 13392 | 1 |
1.150 | 20000 | 1 |
1.170 | 8000 | 1 |
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