Freehold has mentioned a few times that not enough attention is given to having trading rules for your selling, and far too much attention is given towards the buying side of things.
In looking through the library and various postings scattered throughout HC, there seem to be two approaches to consider.
The first one is event driven - ie. drilling results come out and the SP spikes upward - take some off the table
The second is target related - ie. after a gain of 50 percent etc - take some off the table.
I've been dabbling in merging the two approaches, but I seem to have ended up with a Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method of selling. For those that are not cricket aficionados, the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method is an ingenious system designed to confuse cricket followers to the point where at the end of a match you're not quite sure who won. It's rules are as follows:
"The DLS (Duckworth-Lewis-Stern) method works on the principle that a batting team has two resources in hand when starting an ODI innings: 300 balls, and ten wickets. As the innings progresses, these resources keep depleting, and eventually reaches zero when a team either plays out all 300 deliveries, or loses all 10 wickets.
When, due to any reason, the batting team loses overs, they are denied the opportunity to make full use of their resources. Targets are hence revised in a way that is proportional to the amount of resources available to each team.
The rate at which these resources deplete isn't uniform across the overs, but varies depending on the scoring patterns of ODIs (calculated from studying matches over several years). At any point, the resources lost due to an interruption depends on:
- number of overs lost - stage of an innings when the overs are lost - wickets in hand at the time of the interruption
Losing overs in the later stages of an innings will usually impact a team more than losing the same number of overs earlier in an innings, as those overs are more productive, and teams have less opportunity to recalibrate their targets than if overs are lost early in the innings. A team which is already six down after 20 overs will have lesser to lose from a 10-over interruption, than a team which is, say, only two down at that stage. That is because in the first case, the team has already lost a huge chunk of their batting resources by the dismissals of six top-order batsmen. A team which is only two down can better capitalize on the last 30 overs than a team which is six down. However, the system doesn't take into account the specific batsmen who have been actually dismissed, or those who are still to bat."
Confused? .... Hmmmm .... I think I need to refine the system and go back to the KISS principle (Keep It Simple Stupid)
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