AVZ (ASX) Running Commentary on the SP Movements.

Originally posted by antimatter ↑

Similar to you, I am not satisfy with mangement on their communication about the drilling milestones. It's OK to miss communicated milestone once or max twice, but to do this three or four times is not acceptable. However, I have an opppose view about communicating non material matters.

IMO, if you immediately communicate about the rigs delay or not, the market will work it out and the SP will go down to the level where it should be. The only difference is the velocity. One quick and one slow. If management don't communicate straight away, it gives them more options to rectify the situation and stop the SP from sliding. In the worst case, the SP will drift to the level where the delay is communicated anyway. So by not communicating, management is delaying the sliding of the SP which is in the best interest of most shareholders (except shorters and down rampers). Not withstanding this, management cannot do this repeatedly for they will loose their credibility and the market will start to question everything they say (which I believe it's starting to be the case).

From my observation, they seems to be good with exploration, but poor with project management. If they can't manage to deliver on the communicated drilling milestones, God help us when we start to build the mining plant. It seems that they know this and that is why they recently hire Brans who has over 45 years of experience in project development, and this is also the reason why I think they should give more incentive to Brans than to Ferguson in the recent announcement.

AVZ short medium term SP will depend on how well we deliver on communicated milestones.

My two cents.

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Very strange isn't it ... I remember when they announced, in December, that they were behind schedule with the drilling program, because there was an "embargo on moving heavy equipment over Christmas" - despite the fact the drills were meant to be on site mid-December, such that Christmas should have had no effect. But to make up for it they were contracting 2 drilling companies, Equator and Equity, with 5 drill rigs, to get us back on schedule. We forgave them for the delay on the understanding that we were in safe had that would see this right. Now we have a reassuring response form KE that with 5 drill rigs working it is expensive so we need an immediate CR to meet the financial demands of an "aggressive" drill program. But there still ain't no 5 drills... 1 drill rig and 1 drill hole is all we have to show for the aggressive, 2 contractor, 5 drill campaign, yet we continue to receive lip service that the other 4 rigs are due this week. AVZ's idea of "aggressive" is meeker than the Dalai Lama's from what I'm seeing