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Short Term Trading Week Starting: 26th Feb, page-202

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Diver Dan

1,889 Posts.

1023

01/03/18

07:08

Post #: 31435525
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Originally posted by Diver Dan ↑

Good morning ASX traders, here is a bit of the US market action for you.

US Mid-Session Update

The new Fed Chair’s address to the House Financial Committee left the market feeling a bit uncertain as to the number of rate hikes that we will see this year. Testimony included positive commentary on growth expectations and a bit of conviction as to the rate of reversal of the Fed’s balance sheet. This resulted in a reversal of the previous session’s gains. The accompanying fervor revolved around the debate of 3 vs 4 rate hikes this year.

Today, a brief opening bounce was rapidly truncated as the Crude Inventories report took oil and then equities out of their slightly positive posture. The S&P now trades in tandem with oil. Oil and equities have now recovered somewhat from that flap. Both are in flux as I have my eyes on the screen and a hesitant finger on the post button.

There are few readily apparent catalysts available for intraday upside, sans February eom window dressing. That window dressing may yet come to fruition, but at present it looks more like reallocation and distribution ahead of tomorrow’s Fed testimony to the US Senate.

S&P/ES/SPY : 2750/2750/275.00
Yesterday’s bearish engulfing daily candle and slightly bearish turn in short term momentum indicators gave way to a slightly higher open of 2753.78 today. ES and S&P cash session opened higher on the heels of a decently structured Tuesday ES session, but when Crude Inventories came out at 10:30 – taking CL out of positive posture - ES broke through VAL and the SPX is now just north of 2050. ES action seems correlated almost tick for tick with CL.

Market Internals
NYSE Advance-Decline Lines: Started the session at +1568 and proceeded to fall to -273, it now resides just over the flat line at +288. NYSE breadth: +1.04:1. NASDAQ breadth: +1.67:1. NYSE TICK has stayed close to the flat line throughout the AM session. TRIN is now slightly bearish at 1.2

Implied Volatility
VIX is was up to 19.7 and is now flat on the day. VXH8:18.03 VXJ8:17.65 VIX: 18.44

Open Interest
OI for today’s expiration has changed a bit since yesterday, with a higher put interest at 2750. Beneath that, there is gradually sloping support until 2700 with firm support at 2680. The call resistance starting at 2770 increases sequentially to 2800.

Equity Related Currencies and Crosses
USD Index is off its daily highs but still positive (+.22% at 90.554). The Yen, however, is doing its own thing today with the USD/JPY (-.68% at 106.60⁵). EUR/USD (-.17% at 1.2212⁷). AUD/USD (+.07% at .7795¹). FX options expiries are also in play here.

Commodities
Gold GCJ8 is trying to get back some of yesterday’s losses (+.21% at 1321.4) Copper futures HGK8 (-1.58% or 3.1360) and Crude Light Futures CLJ8 are off the lows of 61.75 (-.41% at 62.75)

Debt/Bond/Treasury
ZNM8 10 Year Treasury futures are now +.14% and the 10 Year yield is back to about 2.88%.
S&P Futures

S&P Futures Now

View attachment 990034

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Update and Correction

S&P/ES/SPY : 2737/2738/273.90
"...SPX was just north of 2750". ES action is still correlated strongly with CL.

With an hour to go in the session, Crude Light (-2.12% at 61.67) has resumed its fall along with the S&P energy sector and pressures the index and the futures (-.33% at 2738) to below value area.

Last edited by Diver Dan: 01/03/18

XAO Value at posting: 6,117.3
7 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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