Ann: GVHD Day 28 Results Presentation, page-62

Updated aGVHD commercial opportunity

OK, I have gone back and done some fine-tuning of my previous calculations to use 'actual' receipts as a basis for pricing as opposed to the headline rate for a full course of MSC 100-IV.

To date MSB have received approx US$2.9m over 6 quarters for Temcell (excluding milestones), using 150-200 patients treated to date, US$15k - US$20k per patient. At 20% royalty (MSB get paid approx 20% of sale proceeds on Temcell), we can estimate the gross sale of Temcell to be approx $75k - $100k per patient. I will use $85k as a proxy.

Pediatric aGVHD market 3,000 cases globally @$85k = US$255m
Adult aGVHD market 12,000 cases globally @$85k = US$1.02bn

Pediatric aGVHD market US/EU 1,950 cases (using 65%) @$85k = US$166m
Adult aGVHD market US/EU 7,800 cases (using 65%) @$85k = US$663m

The above is if MSB launch MSC 100-IV on its own... what we should consider is at peak penetration of the market, MSB can achiee US$166m in the US/EU in annual revenues.

If we partner the pediatric aGVHD, we only approx 20% of that i.e. US$33.2m

If we partner the adult aGVHD program, we get US$133m

Keep in mind partnered royalties will have no cost attached ... whereas launching it on our own will mean we will need to factor in operating costs.

But we can see that when the MSC 100-IV is a mature product offering, it can on its own generate enough cash flows to make MSB a cash flow positive business. What remains to be seen is how long it will take to ramp up sales, but it need not reach full maturity to significantly reduce MSB's cash burn.

In the meantime I hope to see partnerships in CLBP, CHF and RA to provide the necessary cash injections to keep MSB going before the aGVHD program is able to take over as provider of on-going funding, with CHF revenues (assuming accelerated approvals are achieved) to follow shortly after.

Early stages, but we can finally say with some confidence that we are definitely moving in the right direction.