March Charts, page-90

And whether that 3rd step occurs seems somewhat tied up in how tariffs on steel & aluminium plays out, after reading this link from the page you linked

Trump Tariffs

"While underlying fundamentals remain strong, investors said the threat of a trade war adds another layer of uncertainty to existing concerns about inflation and the prospects for long-term growth."

"Kotok said rising tensions are “either setting up a massive buying opportunity in U.S. stocks—which is what we believe—or it is setting up an economy that will be forced into recession by protectionism (which we do not believe).”
“Either outcome has become less predictable. Trump has raised risk premia in all markets,” he said."

Is Trump "playing chicken"?

Cheers