We can now say with confidence that the final size of the 2017 Californian crop will be 2.27 billion pounds: this is less than 1% higher than the original NASS objective forecast, so their estimate turned out to be pretty much spot on.
Over the past week or so, a couple of websites- one of the Indian
sites which report on such matters, and another Spanish agriculture news
site- have reported on a rise in the almond price, which would make sense in consideration of Surandy's observation regarding the depletion in the carryout.
A 2.27 billion pound crop would equate to a 5.5% increase in Californian almond supply compared to the previous year. In recent years global demand for almonds has been increasing at a rate of 8-10% per year.
With the poor Australian crop last year and the continuing drought in Spain, it is fairly clear that demand is running well ahead of supply, and so a stronger almond price would seem logical.
If we get another poor Australian crop in 2018, that could push the almond price even higher. That of course wouldn't be entirely good news for Select, but at least if they wind up with another disappointing crop in 2018 it looks like they will at least be getting a good price for the almonds, unlike last year.
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