This is just pure misinformation.
Expected Staff costs for Q12018 are $1.164 million and there will be no need for a CR anytime soon.
Here's a run down of AB1's financial situation overall.
Cash Reserves
At the end of the Q417 Quarter, AB1 had a cash reserve of
$688,000.
ICI Sale
In January of 2018 AB1 received
$198,000 from ICI and by the completion of the app sales to ICI, which is expected to occur during Q12018, ICI will pay AB1 a further
$750,000 in cash (plus $4 million in ICI shares.)
Capital Raising
During January AB1 raised
$3,250,000 in cash through a Capital Raising.
Apps Portfolio
In Q417 the company received $900,000 in customer receipts from their apps. Based on $90,000 a month from Crazy Kings (as stated in 15th Feb announcement), the company made $270,000 in Q417 from Crazy Kings. I'm going to tackle Crazy Kings revenue separately, so that leaves $630,000 from other apps in Q417. This was prior to the sale of their casual mobile games to ICI, however, they still retained ownership of games like
Ever After High (currently ranked #11,785 globally, with a ranking over the last 3 months averaging about #18,452 with a high of #3,914 and a low of #34,874, they are also
currently ranked in the top 25 apps in 20 countries, ranking #2 in Fiji),
Monster High Minis (ranked
#10,198 globally on 20th March),
Thomas and Friends: Race On (which
reached a global ranking of #547 on 23rd of Feb and still maintains a Global ranking of #45,507) and other Mattel games as well as their other non-branded products.
So I'm going to make the assumption that of the $630,000 they made in Q42017 from apps excluding Crazy Kings, they most likely, based on their current portfolio and app rankings, have made at a minimum, 75% of last quarters revenue from existing apps.
Giving a low estimate of $472,500 in revenue from their mid-core and casual apps.
Crazy Kings
On top of this, we know that Crazy Kings, which usually generates $90,000 per month, generated $354,958 over the month from the 8th of January to the 11th of February. Looking at app rankings, Crazy Kings reached a spike of #123 on the 15th of January and then fluctuated between a global ranking of #10,000 and #100,000 during the period of the 8th of January till the 11th of February (the period in which $354,958 was generated). It has since maintained rankings between #10,000 and #100,000 and is currently #4 in Portugal.
All of this information means we can extrapolate the data to assume that if $354,958 was made during Jan-Feb where the app had one leap to #123 and then fluctuated between #10k and #100k, and the app used to generate $90,000 a month.
Then the following Feb-March and March-April months in which the app continued to fluctuate between #10k and #100k, we can assume that revenue was between $90,000 and $300,000 per month.
I am going to assume that revenue for the two months of Feb and March will be approximately $125,000 per month.
So in total, for the quarter, we have $354,958 in first month, and an additional $250,000 for the next two months.
This gives a total of $604,958 generated by Crazy Kings.
Crazy Defense Heroes
Next we have our pride and joy, our flagship app, Crazy Defense Heroes. I've done plenty of previous posts about revenue predictions for this game over the quarter and I stand by them. However, I will not be re-writing them here. Instead I will note that $905,548 was made by Crazy Defense Heroes in the Jan-Feb period, and with my previous posts and their assumptions, I assumed $1,886,000 in revenue. For the sake of proving my point that a CR isn't needed and to show AB1 is going to have a great quarterly, I'm going to call this $1.5 million. So over 5 weeks it generated $905,548 and then over 7 weeks it generated another $600,000.
So we have a conservative $1,500,000 from Crazy Defense Heroes.
Profits and Costs
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
| 1 |
Description |
Profits/Costs |
| 2 |
Estimated Cash Outflows |
-$3,558,000 |
| 3 |
Cash Reserve |
+$688,000 |
| 4 |
ICI Payment 1 |
+$198,000 |
| 5 |
ICI Payment 2 |
+$750,000 |
| 6 |
Capital Raise |
+$3,250,000 |
| 7 |
Casual/Midcore Apps |
+$472,500 |
| 8 |
Crazy Kings |
+$604,958 |
| 9 |
Crazy Defense Heroes |
+$1,500,000 |
| 10 |
Fuel Powered Aquisition |
-$752,263 |
| 11 |
TribeFlame |
-$50,000
|
| 12 |
Tribeflame Consideration |
-$50,000
|
Cash at end of Q12018 = +$4,557,721
Based on the above and a few reasonable assumptions we will have $4.5 million in cash by the end of the quarter. 
