In the natural scheme of commodity development projects, yes. EV is more a Chinese beast creation than the symptom of world pollution aka climate change. I never believe economics can evolve from being forced to change models of usage especially energy source simply because we are poisoning our air from global warming perspective that manifested to Climate Change. The implication of this change IMO is to make it more ambiguous and subject to less data scrutiny and condescending views. Green energy to some, renewable energy to others but the meaning is the same cannot stand on its own feet without Govt subsidy. The domestic solar panels is the classic example; it became too popular from Govt subsidy on price of installation to buy back energy price that it was discouraged to grow so exponentially by limiting the energy buy back scheme. Demand was taken out of the system but did you see the rules of economics apply? Energy prices have risen!
EV acceptance will likely power ahead through the draconian Chinese policy on its domestic market and foreign car manufacturers are altering their strategy because they see China as the biggest and highest growing car market about to be revolutionised by domestic policy. China's incentive is to play catch up on quality of car manufacturing/engineering/tooling and not go through the S Korea experience of having to start at the bottom of the food chain and slowly progress up like the Japanese before them had to endure! Now with EV it is suddenly all about battery tech and nothing much about engine manufacturing.
If my understanding is correct, battery tech is the new challenge and as we know from the mobile phone experience that no current technology has a 'carte blanche' over time and new ways of efficiency through perhaps tech changes is inevitable. Will lithium medium be replaced in the future? History suggest a greater likelihood but it has first mover advantage. Cobalt and nickel are therefore riding this coat tail of acceptance and success.
The sooner we can bring Sunrise to commercialisation the better regardless of off take.
Secondly and of more importance is where this Trump tariff is heading to. Tit for tat if serious will lead to other sectors and we know the race to the bottom isn't going to benefit Oz with its commodity exports oriented economy. 2 immediate sector facing first hand brunt of this tariff, IO & Coal, may lead to copper (housing), agriculture and so on. New development in Oz on surcharge from online shopping + GST is a form of tariff of which China was the majority beneficiary of that shopping experience will be felt from their online retailers.
As an example I just bought a pack of 20 button lithium batteries from Aliexpress for AUD$5. How much do you think that will cost here in Oz? Add the 5 bucks surcharge and GST, it suddenly isn't that competitive anymore.
Personally I have confidence in this EV revolution but unsure if Lithium has a strangle hold. Don't know if cobalt is only a Li battery thing? Don't know where this tariff wars will lead to. All I know is buckle up next week for continuous selling and if the tariff is not a negotiation tactic but a fix on the US trade deficit policy under Trump, then we have likely seen the top of the market run in January! Thus if this pans out it will be difficult to make capital gains for everyone involved in all sectors and even gold may suffer bouts of profit taking in order to plug holes of investors other exposures. Could be a GFC experience all over again and cash will be king if that scenario plays out. Sorry a long post and more like a thought bubble than a carefully thought through thinking.
