Running Commentary on the SP Movements., page-17663

Race, thank you for sharing your views & highlighting the KDR experience. We're all expecting a JV but have no idea of the shape and form it may take. I have thought about the short term impact on the share price (I'm very bullish long term but am never game to predict short term price movements) and have a different view for a few reasons. Firstly, in my opinion the CR of $15M at 25c was a strong indication that a takeover was far less likely and than likely - would have automatically generated selling. Since that time we've seen an intra day share price of 37c come right down to yesterdays close of 25c and as low as 23c a few weeks back. Sure, other factors have played a role - Dow sell off, negative Morgan and Stanley press about the Industry in general but I also suspect a TO premium factored into the price previously has come out of the equation since the CR. Also, I should add that there are still many skeptics who, right or wrong, believe AVZ will never get to production meaning potential investors are sitting on the sideline. In his recent visit to Australia, Joe Lowry was quoted as saying as much in the Australian - in fact, he focussed more on AVZ than his host, PLS. While some have reservations about his judgments, most in the industry still regard him as the guru of lithium (I don't) and will hang off his words. A JV, if nothing else, would disprove his views and pent up demand for the stock (those sitting on the sidelines) could spill over to actual buying. Of course, a stunning drilling update/assay results could easily spark a sp rally. All in all, while I note your view I'm quietly confident that a JV will have a positive sp movement, both short term and long term as I'm of the opinion the sp no longer factors in a large TO premium. Also, on any metric (to be confirmed by JORC) AVZ is seriously undervalued. I have no doubt the stock would be close to 60-70c (perhaps higher) if it was located in Australia. Cheers