Rastus your observations are accurate. And I think your cobalt price assumptions are reasonable,
though I am not supporting nor contesting your cobalt price assumption.One's cobalt price assumption is an important variable in ARL, because they need high cobalt prices.
You have as much of a chance of being right as the next person.
If you go on $30 cobalt, your estimate of ARL valuation will go down, because they assumed $41 cobalt, and your estimate of CLQ will go up, because they used $14 cobalt.
Of course there still remains the potential upside for sulfate premia, which are equal as far as we are concerned; and scandium income, which both may get, to various degrees depending on one's opinions on that subject.
Nobody really knows what the prices will be, and everyone has to make their own assumptions.
We try to make the base case as close as possible, so that "other things are equal"....but they never are.
Then we compare the impact of variables on studies done that are done at different times, different degrees of detail, and with different assumptions, trying to start on an "other things being equal" basis. The other things never are equal, though we would like them to be for our comparisons.
The bottom line for me, all things considered, is that ARL is a good bet in cobalt. I am long ARL even though it does not compare strongly to CLQ on the available data. But no one else is going to compare favorably to CLQ, either, and I want more than I want more than one cobalt developer.
ARL is a top pick, even if it is not quite as good as CLQ on the PFS/Investor Presentation figures
available to us.
