Hyundai Kona Electric for Australia, page-35

i think you are right that low margin businesses with high input costs from petrol and servicing will lead here. industries i see as switching to EV early include:

1) delivery drivers - this is a massive group in london due to the fact that online shopping is enormous here. take grocery shopping for example. unlike australia there are very few full size supermarkets here, so the vast majority of households grocery shop online through ocado, amazon fresh, etc. likewise amazon prime is deeply embedded in london so most ppl buy and have goods delivered to their house on literally a weekly basis because its free and within 24hrs.

so once good ev trucks are on the market it wont take long for behemoth companies to figure out they can cost save a fortune via EVs which can be rapid-charged as the drivers drop into the warehouse and load their next 20 households worth of deliveries plus have a meal/ toilet break. i would be amazed if the majority of short haul delivery trucks arent ev’s within 10yrs.

2) taxis are starting to go EV in london as i mentioned earlier. the same will hopen for uber and the “car service” industry which is like a private taxi service that people book to drive them to/ from the airport for example. this industry is big in london and new york as two examples. the majority of EVs in london are already toyota priuses but they arent that cheap to run once overall service/ purchase costs are accounted for, so i think uber drivers will slowly figure out that the EV economics work out cheapest. they can choose to stop at a charging station around london for a charge and a quick break, or they can pop home and charge when theres a lull in business (eg early afternoon/ late evening). this may sound strange, but even without EVs i am often told by local uber drivers that they have just gone home for a dinner/ lunch break for an hour and then come back out, so i dont think it would be a big change for them.

these 3 categories represent the vast majority of central london traffic, hence i think EV will dominate within a decade.

sorry to keep hrping on about london, but i think it contrasts the lower density cities of australia where oz investors may think that the economics of EVs in business dont stack up. the same principles would apply im sure to new york, tokyo, many chinese cities and once these global ‘trend setter’ cities prove the EV model works in business i think we will see the trend filter down to smaller and lower density cities as the ever improving technology continues to drive lower costs and shorter charging times of EVs.

the cost of lithium will inevitably drop as supply continues to expand but i dont think we will see a glut and a price crash unless my demand side observations and predictions are way off.