takeover to backfire and hurt fas shareholder, page-23

Incognito

we're going round in circles.

Potential means up to - doesnt mean it'll get there and it's a conceptual notion and an opinion.

If I broke it down into what i think are the probabilities you'll see I'm not exaggerating and ramping.

this is how i see it ...roughly.

100MT .. 98% probability .. we're basiically there.

150MT ... 80% probability

250 MT ..50% probability

500 MT .. 20% probaility

750 MT ..10% probability

1 bill tons .. 2% probability

If you asked me what i thought the target is i'd say 250MT .. the 50/50 bet .. but there's an outside chance there's more all the way up to 1 bill tons - which i see as the potential (not the target note)..

i like GWR's conservative approach.
Nevertheless it's stated it's targeting 250MT - which you can be sure is a very achievable target - as we're talking about a conservative company here.
so 250MT would be a 50/50 bet .. as nothing is certain .. but because nothing is certain it could also be more.


This is a conservative company remember.

Other iron ore companies might have a 10 km ridge and strike and talk of conceptual targets of 200MT - 300MT - and these companies dont get accused of ramping.

how big is FDL's strike length by comparison? very small ..yet it stated a conceptual target of up to 300MT.

Ridge B and C alone has a greater strike length than FDL conceptual target. what about the rest of GWR's strike?

One day you might have the potential to understand what I'm gettiing at .. but I think that might be a 1% probability of being achieved.