help fatstocks , page-10

here goes guys, have used a word doc spell check etc....
I thought I’d start with a review of the data for the period since the market began a significant review of Gondwana Resources. I hope using “word” to pre draft works. However when the market is trading I’m short on time to post so the spelling and typos will occur…..sorry.

Date VWAP Volume Value Trans Open L H Close
10/01/08 4.39 53608652 2358192.50 515 0.049 0.039 0.050.043
09/01/08 4.97 59838132 2975353.00 638 0.052 0.0450.054 0.047
08/01/08 5.54 229323516 12714109 1717 0.054 0.049 0.06 0.055
07/01/08 4.18 365946144 15307884 2122 0.03 0.029 0.051 0.046
04/01/08 2.86 246864428 7066569 1426 0.016 0.016 0.036 0.031
03/01/08 1.49 6034335 89935.00 35 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.015
02/01/08 1.44 7133019 102963.00 35 0.013 0.013 0.016 0.016
31/12/07 1.30 750000 9750.00 4 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013

It would be fair to say the market is trying to work out what GDA might be worth prior to the announcements. What do the figures above tell me?
That the high has been comfortably reached in the last four days of between 5c and 6c. This might surprise a lot of traders who probably have concentrated on the price at the close. The close is just one point in time of a months trading and is used as what a share is doing. It doesn’t, the average of the price and the trading range tells much more about a share price potential one way or another.
The data also tells me…..
That the vwap (average price) has been between 4.1 and 5.5c
The low today was a cent higher than Mondays
The open was 1.9c higher than Mondays
There were 365m shares traded on Monday, which is about 312m more than today but today won out on some of the data despite a much reduced volume, and that's a good thing when the data for each performance indicator is averaged.

Today’s trading saw a couple of periods of both selling and consolidation.
The sellers were either those wanting to take a profit or
Those wanting to trade in and out within a few days for a potential smaller profit but a profit none the less or
Traders who decided to sell because of some of the comments in other hc GDA threads or
Owners of shares received as part of the rights issue and were taking advantage of the higher price or
The seller was nervous about getting “stuck”with the shares and sold on nervousness.
All of these are very much okay and not to be criticized. Everyone has a different risk profile and financial circumstance. Some of us buy a quantity with a dollar amount of profit in mind, linked to a pre determined price movement, eg, an outlay on GDA today for $21,000 at 4.3c would buy 500,000 shares and for a half cent rise from point of purchase gives a $2,500 profit if the shares are sold when the price reaches 4.8c. Some might do it for a .001 cent rise in price for a $250 profit. Do this once a day for 5 days and the profit is $1,250.
Of course consistent opportunities are not always happening and a price rise over the next month to say 10 or 15c (if the news is good) would make it hard to keep the buy volume for the above example continuing. I do both, a longer term buy and a set profit purchasing.

There were periods of no trading as a Mexican stand off occurred on numerous occasions between those wanting to sell and those who thought the sellers were coming down to meet their bid price, Nothing happened for ages.

There were few shares ( not a lot) for sale in the levels up to 5.1c for much of the afternoon which suggests that despite the growth in sell offers, they were mostly in the higher levels where owners have decided they are not selling but would do so if the buying reached the 6.3 and 6.5c levels. This is a good indicator of where the market thinks Gondwana share price will go within the week. I think the larger volume on the sell side spooked the market today………but in fact most of the order volume was at much higher levels. This can also happen on the buy side in reverse.

The buy/sell time frames vary considerably depending on the nature of the news that triggers interest in a stock like GDA. The data I have reviewed has convinced me that my buying is for a month plus timeframe. Today there was an entry point when the buy volume dropped at 1345 hrs edst to 33m with 51m sell offers, at that point 24m shares had traded, the price was 4c and went to the days low of 3.9c 7 minutes later. That period was the buy signal when the buy spread ratio was heavily weighted on the sell side (despite the bulk of sell orders above the highs of any day of the trading since last Friday. From there on, the sell volume retreated to be even buys/sells and the price went back up to 4.6, 4.7 and 4.8c. Some more profit taking occurred and the buy side weakened as some flooding caused the buyers to retreat.

Some people are very quick to panic even on weak volumes and sell but time in the market will reveal a consistent period of stability or price retraction after a rapid increase.
As posted in other threads over the past few days, there are many contributing factors that have contributed to the trading data since the news on Friday.

I am looking forward to tomorrow, there will be more buy opportunities and sell opportunities but 90% of my investment is looking for the news on iron-ore, gold and the ex date. What that storey tells will determine my position longer term.
Did everyone notice cazaly was up 12 % today, light volume, they are jv with GDA and any news on the iron ore results with gda. might be worth keeping an eye on (I don't own any caz).

Gondwana the preferred stock on the asx leading into the news and meeting this month!

Cheers Fatstocks.