testing fib 61.8 retracement at 6000 ..., page-28

I don't buy this idea of extreme bearishness and that that means a bottom is imminent, regardless of any sentiment numbers.

My sense is that the bearisness is not ingrained.

So people may be short or bearish but still looking for a bottom at any moment and given the slightest encouragement will be long again.

That may turn out to be the best action, but I don't believe any great despondency has fallen upon investors yet.

My belief has always been that March was likely to be the best time to reenter the market and that remains. I exited a large proportion of my fund holdings on the day of the July high. Because we went higher after Aug I did put some back in, sad to say, but still holding out with the rest for now.

The one thing that would upset that idea is if a rally occurs into March. That would suggest that another leg down into Oct is the probable outcome, and of course a more devestating decline than would normally be expected in the standard cyclical patterns.