Not sure you're totally right in this. I just listened to the entire MinRes teleconference and one thing came through loud and clear: smarting from his recent AWE loss, Ellison is hungry for a TO win. He even says it. Interestingly, right at the end, he sounds less confident, sceptical even, of getting AGO for the scrip he's offered.
GW
AGO Price at posting:
2.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held