"My feeling is market have really priced in the worst of the worst, looking at their dividend history tells me that there is a possibility of a bigger final dividend of more than 54 c"
@OpTrader,
With AGL's balance sheet in the best condition it has been for several years (see graphic below), I think we can take it as given that the final dividend will be more than 54c, which is what the interim dividend was.
I think a final dividend of at least 60c is on the cards, which would be a 20% uplift on FY2017's final dividend of 50c. (This compares to the 32% increase in the interim dividend, to 54c, from 41c in the pcp.)
View attachment 1075306
[Note that the jump in FY2012 reflected the consolidation of the $2.2bn of Loy Yang debt after AGL changed from equity accounting Loy Yang, to consolidating its financials into the AGL accounts, after moving from a minority stake to 100% ownership).]
It also warrants noticing that while AGL's dividend payout ratio has been rising over the past few years as the financial position of the company has improved, it is currently at 75%, implying further upside wiggle room given the company's growth capital commitments are are all funded by surplus cash flows.
View attachment 1075321
"but hey I can't see the future so it is just a guess which means big ZERO."
You aren't alone; nobody can see the future.
Which is why I think the best way to invest in publicly-listed companies is on the basis of valuation.
Because if one is able get the valuation part right, then the future will take care of itself and one doesn't have to worry about trying in vain to predict it.
(20min delay)