Lithium Demand surge, page-264

When looking at a spec share, I have two questions before I invest: what could go wrong? Why is this particular company the one who is going to win?

I'm simply saying you guys seem really optimistic, which is great. I love EVs but to pretend that they're flawless is not helpful. Reality - they make the drive from Sydney to Melbourne longer than the drive today. The "Better place" business model would have solved that, but it was capital intensive and a complete failure. Manufacturers didn't want to standardise battery packaging because cars are different shapes, and people didn't want to lease capacity. Perhaps businesses might. But won't vehicle automation make a huge difference? I believe the better place business model will return, but it will a bunch of car manufacturers to come on board and maybe even a mandated standard.

Then there is the whole energy density question: is Lithium really the right answer? Or are super-capacitors going to be the thing that solve the EV convenience issue? Someone mentioned the 4 minute Porsche - I believe that used capacitors rather than battery. Or more accurately a battery that is more capacitor like than lithium-based batteries. What about gold-nanowire batteries - is the lithium spike really the way of the future - or will be back to the future with industrial uses of gold. How do we know Lithium Ion doesn't go the way of NiCad?


As for "do you even research?"

Well yes, one of the first things I do when assessing any company is test to see how hyped the current holders are - when they're hyped, I get worried. Remember the old traders maxim: "when the tea lady buys shares, sell everything."

By all means believe - you have to if you're going to buy spec shares and sleep at night. I love the optimism here, I'm just not quite there yet on the "this tiny mining company will change the world" thing.

The fundamental technology questions don't put this in my "buy and hold for twenty years bucket", and what this thread has told me is that this stock is likely a more short-run play - I'd be looking for an entry around half the current price with an exit around 50% higher than the current price.