Your use of using 31 polls is a one dimension measure, it's like saying a box 30 cm long is shorter than a box 30 cm long and ignoring the high and width.
You can not, or will not address the following
I have made the assessment before and I will give it to you again for you to address
I need to make the comparison with Abbott to put it into perspective so don't take it as an attack on Abbott, it's just a comparison to put some perspective on it.
When Abbott was opposition leader he was not all that popular, he was actually on a par with Gillard. Actually in 2010 Gillard was a fair bit ahead of Abbott and in 2013 she was slightly ahead, despite that LNP won the 2013 election and by all accounts it was due to labors internal bickering.
Moving forward to after the 2013 election, Abbott polls poorly as preferred PM but maintains a narrow lead but over the next year or so Shorten while not polling all that well as preferred PM polls ahead of Abbott.
Mean while polling shows that Turnbull is polling well ahead as preferred leader of the liberal party so we had a situation where LNP are polling poorly on 2pp basis, the PM (Abbott) is polling worse than the opposition leader and some one else in the liberal party (Turnbull) is polling way ahead as preferred leader.
That suggests that Abbott might be at least part of the LNP polling problem, now remember LNP polling under Abbott got as low as 39.5% 2pp and was often polling in the low 40's
Come time for the leadership spill and LNP are behind in the polls under Abbott, the spill happens, Turnbull become leader and PM and almost over night LNP are ahead in the polls. Humm that suggest voters where not unhappy with the change in leadership.
Now as further evidence that Abbott was the problem for LNP polling, a poll conducted in the week before the 2016 election showed LNP would win with a small majority which turned out to be spot on. That same poll asked how they would vote if Abbott was leader, the result showed LNP would have lost a landslide 29 seats.
Now the current situation,
- LNP have been behind in the polls but the lowest LNP have polled in the past year was 46% 2pp and more recently around 48-49% 2pp depending which poll you look at.
- Turnbull has consistently polled well ahead of shorten as preferred PM.
- A recent poll showed 74% of LNP voter want Turnbull to stay on as leader, over all 62% want him to stay on as leader
- There is no one else in the liberal party that rates even close to Turnbull as preferred leader
So there you have the facts which I belive any reasonable person can see that while LNP is down in the polls there is little to suggest Turnbull is the problem and even less to suggest replacing him will help the LNP.
Now if you would like to put forward your own quantitative analysis please do.
PS: saying you think Turnbull is a dud doesn't cut the mustard
Your use of using 31 polls is a one dimension measure, it's like saying a box 30 cm long is shorter than a box 30 cm long and ignoring the high and width
So there you have it I have measured Turnbull and abbott on 3 dimensions not just one, by all means address the two dimension you continually ignore. Ie who had LNP poll at it's lowest, who rated best against the opposing leader and who rates best as preferred leader
