Ann: Quarterly Cashflow Report, page-16

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binwood

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26/04/18

18:05

Post #: 32702539
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Originally posted by El Jefe ↑

Thanks for clearing that up.
What’s the thinking behind known expenditures being left out of 1/4 prediction reports?

Going through it again more thoroughly it’s looking very tight.
April, May, June expected outflows $34M.
Balance at start of Q3, $30M.

Construction will be as good as finished all going well by end of Q2 so expect outflows to drop a lot. Let’s say $15M for Q3 and then add $15M interest repayments. That leaves nothing left in the tank by September. No contingency.

Even go lower and say $10M outflows for Q3 plus $15M interest that leaves the company with $5M in the tank, still way too tight if there happened to Be any commissioning or production issues. Is there any expected income from proceeds of shares similar to recent quarterly, chance of funding by partner or other when stage 2 study is released, equity placement as part of control transaction? If not I see no alternative but for the company to raise further funds.

I have been critical of AJMs timelines and I remain so. Even reading todays annoucement it confirms further the timelines I have predicted, at least in my mind. How can they claim first sales in Q2!! Even if full commissioning starts early May, looking at recent producers there is little/no hope of first sales in Q2. Commissioning will continue Throughout May + June with first shipment best case scenario in August but possibly September imo.

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I think September is probably a bit far, if they can have first production done by late June they should get a decent shipment away by August. Their expected full run rate is close to 20kt/mth so even at 40% average throughput over 6 weeks that gets them a 10kt shipment by early to mid August. I don't think that is unreasonable but I do agree first sales in Q2 seems unlikely.

As I said I agree cashflow will be tight. Hopefully they do get a stage 2 prepayment or something of that nature but even worst case scenario that they do have to do a WC raise I would rather it at this end hopefully at 40+ then at the other end when we were sub 20c.

@Cashmeoutside I agree with your $10m calc. Wouldn't mind knowing how that turned into $15m either.

AJM Price at posting: 38.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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