BUD buddy technologies ltd

Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-49

  1. 57 Posts.
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    Just need to correct you here @Goldbear77. Your post last night read "So that’s $1.8m in Ohm revenue to date ($150k per qtr for 12 qtrs) given there was almost no Ohm revenue prior. " Fairly certain you meant Cloud/Thor revenue ? Just don’t want some ronnie to pull you up in 3months time J

    Not that it means much as we are talking such small numbers but here are my calcs for the $505k Q3 revenue.

    Thor was $1.8mil over 17months = $106k AUD per month
    New Thor contract of $125k USD = $166k AUD per month.

    Jan + Feb came in previous SoW = Total $212k AUD
    March came under the new SoW = $166k AUD

    $505k – Cloud/Thor ($212k+$166k) = $127k of OHM. Give or take.

    I’m being conservative, using a blended avg of $1000 AUD per month.

    The aware letter response stated $.1mil from Digicel up to 28th Feb. That could actually be $51k rounded up to nearest $100k.

    Jan/Feb = $60k OHM rev
    March = $67k or 67 units in cash receipt mode of OHM revenue

    Looking ahead at the Q42018

    Min $500k from Thor.
    Min ~$938k from OHM

    +$1.34mil YTD gives a FY18 ~$2.8mil.

    My base case is for the OHM’s to double on a monthly basis for the next 4months. 67 March / 134 April / 268 May / 536 June / 1072 in July. This would fulfil the original 1000 lot order of Buddy OHMs and the timeline adds up to the new order of a blended mix of 3k. (Ordered mid Nov17 / delivered mid Feb 18) (Reminder some were air shipped 6 weeks). Then +6months for them to start to turn into full receipt mode ~July 2018. ~1000 active OHM units in July = $12mil per year.

    Reminder, on the 9th Nov 2017 BUD announced an order of 3000 Additional units across the Buddy OHM family to satisfy near term demand. “The units ordered this week are anticipated to meet the more immediate needs of reseller and distribution deals
    already in place.” “ While the original order for Buddy OHM product was symmetric – 1000 units each of Buddy Ohm, Ohm link, Ohm Sense and Ohm Pulse were ordered – this new order will be asymmetric”

    Looking back at the 2Q2018 quarterly. BUD stated “Signed contracts of more than a$69.3mil. “Excluding amounts that have since concerted to revenue and excluding any attribution to the Ingram Micro USA distribution agreement” They have since had to back that statement up in the recent aware letter. In addition, this statement in the Q3 quarterly “The Buddy sales team can report however, that momentum continues to build and all indications are that traction is building as needed to meet recent guidance”. We all know how importance guidance is whether +/- following the recent aware letters. So at this stage they are well on track for `$70mil revenue over the next 3 years. At 11c, the $25mil cash in the bank is worth 2cents to the stock price. BUD is on track to be profitable @ FY19. Math looks good even if the share price doesn’t. Good luck to all investors.

    Disclaimer: All of the above is my opinion only and not to be taken as investment advice. DYOR
 
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