I think the IAF does provide benefits for sophisticated AVB SH as it provides more angles for them to cover all bases and not lose the 17c offer. Theres not a lot of holders that qualify for the IAF.
Of course the Top 20 qualify and they hold 1.555,748,747 shares (63.36% of float) as disclosed in annual report released 27/2/2018.
This leaves 805,942,425 shares held by people that hold more than 100,000 shares, as disclosed on page above Top 20 in that annual report.
The number of holders in the 100,001 + bracket is 1364, so taking out the Top 20 that leaves 1344 holders above 100,001 shares.
If one averages it out they each hold 599659.54 shares and at 17c = $value of $101942.12.
To qualify for IAF you need half a mil worth @ 17c or over 3 mil shares.
These numbers statiscally imply that there cant be too many of the 1344 holders above 100,001 that actually qualify for the IAF.
Therefore the IAF provides a path for the sophisticated to ensure getting their fair 17c while keeping exposure for any other dreamy upside, theres no need for wait and see penny pinching ideology. OZL will also get a good idea of acceptances and be able to deem prudent whether or not to continue the bid any further.
I'm thinking if IAF not taken up in enough numbers to crack the 50.1%, and no other bid comes, OZL should walk away and terminate the bid.
The only reason AVB is as high as 17c is because of OZL, if the OZL bid fails and no other bid comes, AVB will be straight back to single digits imo and could end up having to settle for a worse deal down the track because of funding and dilution risks.
Rebel SH taking big risk not accepting offer imo, plenty downside if no takeover.
Just my view.
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