Running discussion on SP, page-3303

I've been working on a few numbers over the last day or so to compare how much this deposit would be currently worth if it was in Australia compared to the DRC, just to show all the, for lack of better words, "sovereign risk doubters" (of which I was one of, hence sold too early originally), some food for thought..

Firstly, ALL the new lithium companies are valued at higher multiples of in ground resource value than copper/nickel/gold companies. This was the first aspect I thought most interesting!! Copper/Nickel/gold companies tend to be valued at 4-15 times the resource value, with the Sirius (now IGO) resource selling for about 4 times the resource value. Companies like SFR/OZL tend to be around 10 times the resource value.

The lithium companies tend to be 13-30 times resource value, with AJM and GXY being 13-15 times resource value, PLS about 20 times and KDR over 30.

Of course all the different companies are at slightly different stages of development/funding so that will make a huge difference by itself.

Interestingly it is in the new cobalt plus by product companies that I saw a first real difference, with CLA and AML both being at around the same stage of very early exploration, CLA being in Namibia and AML in Queensland. AML is valued at about 30 times resource value, while CLA is valued at about 100 times resource value.

At today's price (which I worked out all the others on) of $960/t spodumene, the Manono resource is worth $164 Billion for spodumene concentrate and tin (this is 60% of 'full' value).
Back in early days for both PLS and KDR, their resources were worth about 50-60 times market cap (before capital raises), therefore using the higher ratio to be conservative, of 60 times resource value, would give AVZ a value of approximately $2.73 billion if in Australia or on a fully diluted basis of $1.16/sh.

Using the 'African discount' from the CLA/AML comparison of 66%, would give AVZ a rough valuation of 38c/sh compared to $1.16 if in Australia.
For those that want to say Namibia is much 'better' than DRC, I'll just remind them of how Tanzania use to be the best place in Africa for mining until they changed their laws overnight a year or two ago. Because DRC have just invoked new mining rules, IMO that makes it much safer on a sovereign basis for junior explorers than before.

Of most interest to me working through the numbers of different companies to their stage and resource value, was how the companies ratio to resource value shrunk as they developed, plus the discount of ALL lithium companies (except AJM and GXY) compared to copper/nickel and gold companies. It is like the market has not woken up to the metal lithium being a needed long term commodity.

Also, IGO overpaid for the Nova-Bollinger resource by a large amount!!

I hope this brief summary makes sense to people.