And as a contrarian angle, in terms of expected supply shortages, some US & Canadian pundits predicted an ongoing shortage in Oregon too. Different place, laws, license restrictions, etc, but worth keeping in mind. Classic new market, lots of new players, lots of capacity brought online = oversupply and lower prices. Oregon went legal rec just 3 years ago, and now....
How do you move mountains of unwanted weed? -
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/may/09/how-oregon-grew-too-much-marijuana-to-sell
Point I'm making is that you can't assume too much, as this is such a new market. You can compare it to general commody behaviour if you want, but there has been no other commodity like this just appear on the world market, so you can't use historical behaviour in commodity markets as a guide, imho.
