You need to read the numbers more deeply and look at the big picture, rather than just the share price and your own position.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
| 1 |
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Close |
Volume |
| 2 |
08/05/18 |
3.58 |
3.64 |
3.46 |
3.49 |
207332 |
| 3 |
07/05/18 |
3.6 |
3.66 |
3.54 |
3.57 |
277382 |
| 4 |
04/05/18 |
3.45 |
3.62 |
3.44 |
3.54 |
369127 |
| 5 |
03/05/18 |
3.86 |
3.88 |
3.42 |
3.43 |
1108035 |
| 6 |
02/05/18 |
3.63 |
3.85 |
3.6 |
3.85 |
843488 |
| 7 |
01/05/18 |
3.54 |
3.58 |
3.36 |
3.58 |
524984 |
| 8 |
30/04/18 (AFR Article) |
3.33 |
3.58 |
3.27 |
3.58 |
1451671 |
| 9 |
27/04/18 |
3.09 |
3.1 |
2.97 |
2.99 |
342110 |
SP closed at $2.99/share before AFR article on the 30th. Volumes were up 45% and SP avg was up 6% for the week before the article (compared to the rest of April).
AFR article went live at 12.15am on April 30, and buying frenzy hit on market open as expected (351,000 traded in the first 30 minutes). That day SP rose to $3.58 (19.7% up) and closed on its high. The next day held at the same value, with sustained buying interest but shares being held more tightly.
Second surge on May 2 pushed the SP over 20% higher than its April 27 close, and sellers started building. 271,000 shares traded in the first 30 mins causing a drop to the day's low of $3.6 by 12.30pm. The next surge took it to almost $3.8 by 2.30pm, triggering the big sell off. Between 2pm and 4.10pm 310,000 shares were traded, at up to $3.85/share.
The next morning, 300,000 shares were traded in the first 30 minutes at up to $3.88/share, with over 500,000 traded by 12pm, bringing the price back down to the ~$3.5 mark for a week, until today:
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
| 1 |
09/05/18 |
3.67 |
3.71 |
3.56 |
3.65 |
376,910 |
Yes, SP is up a small amount on the back of higher volume, but go look at those sales - only 25 out of 558 trades are over $10,000, and the average trade was $2458. These are tiny parcels. There's minor support at $3.6 (11,400), but it's nothing compared to the walls at $3.67 (20,232), $3.7 (35,000) and $3.72 (60,531). The sell side is also heavier than the buy, so I'd expect this to fall back to around ~$3.5 by tomorrow or friday, and I still expect further decline by the end of next week if there's no new announcements regarding an Aurora transaction.
Now, I don't know when you bought in - maybe $3.5 is still a good gain for you, but it's not about any one investor. There were over 610,000 shares traded at or near the $3.88 high, and for every person selling there was another person buying, totaling over $2.3 million. When the stock closed at $3.43 on May 3, those buyers were down almost 12% in a day with combined losses of up to $274,500.
Those were the people I was addressing in my original post, and even at today's close they are still down 6%. Unless the rumored takeover bid eventuates soon, those buyers will cut their losses and move their capital to more productive areas.
CAN will trend back towards $2.50 and settle around it's YTD average of $3.1, exactly as it did a month after it's $4.55 high in January.
DYOR
