A bid of 7c would put the bid at about $650M, which would still undervalue the net assets of AGO but it would be a fair result. It would also still be low enough for MIN to create synergy from the acquisition and maximise shareholder wealth for both AGO and MIN holders.
There are other assets as well that I did not included in my recent analysis that would likely be written back at one point by MIN that were impaired by AGO a few years back. These would included the stranded hematite Horizon 2 assets that would require infrastructure to enable its viability. MIN would be able to make these viable at one point.
There would also be an opportunity for maximum value to be extracted for Ridley given its proximity to port and the 68% iron ore concentrate that could be produced. 6-7 years ago, offers in excess of $200M+ were placed on Ridley for a stake in the project.
There is still plenty that could happen between now and the meeting. Yes, there could be another entity swopping in with an offer or MIN raising the offer to a more reasonable level, which would still enable it to extract significant value from the acquisition. When these events occur I could not say, but it could happen at anytime!
Cheers
AGO Price at posting:
3.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
