NAB going up to $30 ?, page-38

This is my first post, after reading through the financial statements my view is that the market is selling off NAB as there is a prevailing sentiment that NAB will not be able to maintain its dividend. As payout ratios are typically around 70% of bank EPS, and NAB had to payout close to the full EPS to maintain its dividend, one could assume that if it maintained status quo (similar to it's peers e.g WBC paying out around 70% EPS) that the dividend payment would be more like 73c. I believe NAB stock price will go to a level that reflects a annualised gross yield of 5.5% at that dividend price. As such I have sold a majority of my holdings and expect price to go to $27.3 (73c x 2 / 5.5%) ex div, minus the dividend adjustment of 99c = $26.3. this is provided external conditions maintain relatively still i.e no ramp up in house prices and increased lending, which I don't foresee.

Thanks and I welcome both positive and negative criticism on my views.

AG