Tesla use NCA. Pretty much everyone else is using NCM. Currently battery chemistry for NCM favours 5-3-2 or 6-2-2 with the intention of moving to 8-1-1. Currently there is something like 6kg of Cobalt metal per EV. For a market that this year that is going to be something like 1.6m units. That is about 9,600t for a world market that currently stands at around 100,000t. Every 1% EV penetration is about 6% growth in the current Cobalt market. Even if you change that to 8-1-1 chemistry that is 3% growth per 1% penetration. We are talking 8-10% penetration by 2025. That is about 24% increase on the current market at a minimum over 7 years. Most laterite projects have a 3-4 year lead time and have no chance of meeting short term demand. People can say what they want about cost and/or ethical supply + battery chemistry, but in my opinion investment will be made or there is no EV industry. That is obviously a poor outcome. Simple solution is that battery manufacturers/automakers fund new projects.
Graphite market isn't simple but just look at SYR. Supposed to be one of the biggest suppliers globally and they managed to struggle through just 12kt of product in Q1. They have been in production for 4 months already and no where near nameplate. Market needs product, just like cobalt. The bigger these markets get the easier finance becomes. Again for a staged approach capex is $40m. If RNU took a 25% prepayment that would be $7.5m, get a $15-20m loan (it's small enough money that it doesn't pose much risk to someone up the food chain) and then fund the rest via minimal dilution.
I am obviously speculating. However I think your view is fairly negative. That is fine by the way, it's good to hear other opinions, I just wanted to open up the debate.
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