CLA chart, page-1187

Wombat mate:  look I shoudn't really be posting this - but its anonymous, this is an email from yesterday from a huge metals trader who specialises in copper/nickle/cobalt. Hes also bought a ton of CLA. This guy advises top world companies on their metals trading strategy and his company undertakes it for them. He's made over 500 million USD in the business himself and knows whats going on big time- far far far far far more than some 24 year old boiler room boy in sydney trying to clip half off as many 5$ commissions as he can to pay his rent that month. Just read what hes saying to see where the smart money is -got to keep this anonymous.


I am not concerned about the scoping study results. Concentration and processing hypotheses are conservative.

A question that is certainly worth asking is to what extend some of the processing could be done at Tsumeb.We did a few transactions with this Namibian plant in the past and everything went smoothly. It is a big facility which would both reduce capex and speed up implementation of the processing phase.

If they want me to gather more info on the status at the smelter, just tell me and I will contact people with the right connections.

I have been in contact with my friends from the Co trading and the latest info is :

-Co will drift to $40 because traders have a lot of in pricing over the next months (fewer sales during the summer holiday) and push the publications down to save a few dollars on incoming units under LT deals (this is what one of my friend does). They make small tonnage sales below price and send copy of contract to publications (easy!)

-They are still convinced it will break the $50 level before year end ( this is very positive, you remember I told you earlier this year i thought this would take much longer)

-Next step is the all time high of $58/lb which will be a strong resistance, but there is much more momentum than the last two times it reached that level. Cobalt should be above $60 during H1 19

The big deal is of course the situation of Glencore which is supposed to produce more than 1/3 of the WW cobalt output next year.

I discussed with a friend who is often in Rwanda and RDC because he runs the W and Ta books of a large trader which owns local mines. He told me that the Congolese should not be underestimated. They already managed to isolate Glencore from other mining companies operating in DRC (they will soon come to terms with them on the royalties).

There are two legal actions ongoing in Kolwezi, one by the state company Gecamines which owns a minority stake in Katanga and wants to take full control and one by Gertler to whom they owe $ 3,000,000,000 in royalties…that they can not pay because he has been blacklist by the US authorities. Gertler already managed to freeze some of their assets and this is of course money which was mainly due to Kabila and he can not survive without this cash.
Hence, they want to kick Glencore out and retake control of assets which means there will be no ramp up at katanga (Gecamines has no cash) and Cobalt production could be 15% lower than predicted if that happens. ..............Glencore is not in a good position,  they will run into serious problems.

This probable major problem is NOT reflected in actual Co prices."

look-Hes using the lbs price for co.  The 60$ an lb his cobalt team are calling in 1q 2019 is equivelent to 130,000 USD per ton - which means about USD 160,000 a ton for Co sulphide.They reckon its going even higher later. Hes in the business. Hes been over 30 years in that end of the trading market. If anyone knows its him.

And here I am being called a crazy bullish spruiker a day or do ago for making a what i thougt was a fairly modest model with 110,000 per oz cobalt in 2020??(Basically Only so I wouldn't be called a carzy bullish spruiker!)

And if the "................." happens (Icant post it here its private)  and  Glencore gets taken out the equation?? As he says-thats not even priced into the market yet.

so......Like is say "dont underestimate.......

So wombat please dont worry about such flippant shallow crap on twitter.