announcement just released, page-13

repost of my previous analysis

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ok so some rough calcs

Revenue from discontinued operations (smelters) $4009.4M
Revenue from continuing operations (century, rosebery) $1929.2M

Profit from smelters after tax = $475.4M
Profit from mines after tax = $827.5M ('07)

(smelters make slimmer margins)

$137.5M in debt
$1.73B in cash from nystar
estimate approx 2.2B in cash currently

486911283 shares on issue

2.2Bn cash = $4.52 a share

$11.09 - $4.52 = $6.57 / share (after cash taken out)

PE of 5x implies EPS of $1.31
PE of 7x implies EPS of 93c

93c -> $452M profit from mines
$1.31 -> $637M profit from mines

last year $827.5M

Stripping smelter volumes through my earnings model for last year I get EPS Q1 to Q4 '07 of 31c, 42c, 34c, 41c sum $1.47 which is about 60% of $2.47 which cross checks with 60/40 split of profits

running with average zinc price of $1.10 and historical cost ratio gives EPS of 24c, 25c, 25c, 24c sum 99c

So at about $11 ZFX is trading on a PE of 7x roughly based on $1.10/lb zinc with $4.52 of the share price as cash and probable EPS of $1.00

so price is probably about where it should be trading from where I figure it.. at a share price of $9.52 it would be on a PE of roughly 5x and a buy..

question is whether AGM will payoff or not..... and remember if they don't get 100% they can't consolidate group revenues so it will be just an "investment" yielding dividends..

century asset dies in the ass in 6 years and other than century the only other revenue source is rosebery ($367m last year and probably closer to $200M this year).

ZFX should have bought OXR