For those with no SA acct.
EV Company News For The Month Of March 2018
Apr. 2, 2018 1:28 PM ET
Summary
Global electric car sales - February sales were up 43% in February 2017.
EV market news - Norway embraces electric ferries. Electric planes to race from London to Darwin in 2019.
China driving the whole car supply chain, EVs are in full swing. Beijing forecasts that China will be able to produce two million electric and hybrid vehicles annually by 2020.
EV company news - "VW secures $25 billion battery supplies in electric-car surge."
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Trend Investing.
Welcome to the March 2018 edition of Electric Vehicle (EV) company news. February global electric car sales delivered another strong month despite the usual slow start to the year. New Bloomberg research stated: "Electric cars may be cheaper than gas guzzlers in seven years" (2024/2025). Volkswagen announced their $25b lithium ion battery deal to secure supply for their huge electric car plans in future years. The EV movement is spreading further to include electric ferries/ships and planes. The Centenary (electric plane) E-Race was announced to begin in 2019, starting in London and traversing the globe to end in Darwin, following in the footsteps of the "1919 Great Air Race."
Global electric car sales as of end February 2018
Global electric car sales finished February 2018 with
81,000 sales for the month, up 43% on February 2017, with 1.1% market share. Note that January and February are traditionally very slow months, so the market share is likely to be much higher and around ~2-2.5% by end 2018.
Of note,
56% of all global electric car sales so far in 2018 were pure electric.
China electric car sales were
34,000 in February 2018, up 88% on February 2017. Electric car market share in China for February 2018 was 1.3% market share.
Current subsidies in China were reduced by
20% in 2017 and will be reduced by 40% in 2019 and 100% by 2021. China's
Zero Emission Vehicle credit system was announced on September 28, 2017, and will begin in 2019 with 10% of credits (12% in 2020) required from new energy vehicles. That translates to 4-5% of EV sales as market share for 2019. We are also expecting an announcement at some stage as to when China will ban ICE vehicles, noting BYD Chairman Wang thinks by
2030.
Europe electric car sales were over
22,000 in February 2018, 39% higher than in February 2017. Europe electric car market share was 1.9% in February 2018. Norway still leads the world with
44% market share of electric cars sold in February.
US electric car sales were over
16,000 for February 2018, 33% higher than February 2017. US electric car market share so far for 2018 is 1.2%.
Note: The above sales include light commercial vehicles.
Note: An acknowledgement to Jose Pontes of
EV Sales and
EV Volumes for his excellent work compiling all the electric car sales quoted above and below.
Global electric car sales by manufacturer for February 2018
Source: EVSales
Annual global electric vehicle sales forecast to hit 24.4 million by 2030
Source
EV market news for March 2018
On March 13 Bloomberg
reported, "VW secures $25 billion battery supplies in electric-car surge. Volkswagen secures battery supplies for two biggest markets. Volkswagen AG secured 20 billion euros ($25 billion) in battery supplies to underpin an aggressive push into electric cars in the coming years." Bloomberg also
reported: "The German manufacturer’s plans to build as many as 3 million of the cars a year by 2025 is backstopped by deals with suppliers including Samsung SDI Co., LG Chem Ltd. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd. for batteries in Europe and China." You can read more details in the Volkswagen section below.
On March 13 Bloomberg
reported: "The next ferry you board might run on batteries. Not far from Norway’s North Sea oil rigs, shipbuilders are assembling some of the first ferry boats ever to be powered entirely by batteries. Dozens of battery-powered boats that can move through inland waterways in Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands are about to make their first voyages, including some able to run fully automatically without a crew. Next up, Norway wants two-thirds of all boats carrying both passengers and cars along its jagged and windy Atlantic coastline to be electrified by 2030. Of the 185 battery powered ships in operation or scheduled for delivery worldwide in 2018, most are in Norway and France."
You also can read a follow up article
"Norway’s electric ferry is so impressive that 53 more were ordered." Of interest the article states: "The Ampere, built by Fjellstrand Shipyar with Siemens and Corvus Energy, decreased emissions by 95% and costs by 80% (compared to standard ferries), as well as noise."
Norway's first zero-emissions ferry - The MF Ampere
Source
On March 15 Green Car Reports
reported: "Why the future of electric cars depends on China's war on pollution. Starting next year China has adopted rules that require carmakers to sell a set percentage of zero-emission vehicles each year." The picture below says it all.
Street-level smog in Beijing
Source
On March 20 Air quality News
reported, "UPS to upgrade entire central London fleet to electric. Packaging delivery giant UPS has announced plans to upgrade its entire central London delivery fleet to run on electric-power. The company’s entire fleet of 170 trucks operating in the capital will switch over to electric, more than doubling UPS’ 65-strong EV fleet in the city."
UPS moving its entire 170 London delivery fleet to be electric
Source
On March 20 Reuters
reported, "Congo government to open talks this week about new mining code. Democratic Republic of Congo said it would open talks on Friday with mining companies about implementing some of the most contentious provisions in a new mining code that hikes taxes and royalties in the face of objections from industry."
On March 23 Bloomberg
reported: "Electric cars may be cheaper than gas guzzlers in seven years. Some models will cost the same as combustion engines as soon as 2024 and become cheaper the following year, according to a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. For that to happen, battery pack prices need to fall even as demand for the metals that go into the units continues to rise, the London-based researcher said on Thursday."
My model has been forecasting e-cars to be cheaper than ICE by the end of 2022 (so 2023) for some years now.
Source
On March 28 JEC Group
reported, "China: driving the whole car supply chain, electric vehicles are in full swing. Beijing forecasts that China will be able to produce two million electric and hybrid vehicles annually by 2020. To reach this goal and fulfill a booming demand, local and foreign automakers are accelerating the timelines. The interest for lightweight materials such as carbon fiber is growing and local car component manufacturers are in their ranks."
On March 28 Electric Vehicle News
reported: "Electric planes to race from London to Darwin in 2019. Electric aircraft will race from London to Darwin next year to mark the centenary of the Great Air Race. "The 1919 Great Air Race captured the imagination of people across the globe," Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner said on Saturday. The 2019 event, to be known as the Centenary E-Race, will start in London late next year and stop over in at least 15 countries before making its way to Darwin. It is hoped that world-leading technology companies including Tesla, NASA, Airbus, Virgin and Boeing will enter in celebration of a century of aviation innovation and achievement by engineers, designers and aircraft constructors."
Source
EV company news for February 2018
BYD Co. (OTCPK:BYDDY), (OTCPK:OTCPK:BYDDF) HK:1211
BYD is currently ranked number 1 in China with
24% market share and the number 1 globally, with
9% global market share.
On March 21 Reuters
reported, "Chinese carmaker BYD close to completing battery recycling plant. Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD Co will open a battery recycling plant in Shanghai in the second quarter as it looks to reduce raw material costs and help to address battery waste, a spokeswoman said on Wednesday. “The date is not yet fixed,” said Gu, who did not give the capacity of the plant or the amount of investment involved. Rising costs of EV battery materials, such as lithium and cobalt, are part of the reason for BYD’s move into recycling, Gu said. “But the most important driving factor is environmental protection,” she added. Delegates at the Chinese parliamentary session that ended in Beijing on Tuesday said the first batch of EV battery waste will hit the market this year, with total battery waste expected to reach 120,000-170,000 tonnes a year by 2020."
On March 28 BYD
announced, "BYD e-taxis to hit Southeast Asian tourism hub Bangkok. The environmentally friendly taxis, capable of reaching a maximum distance of 350 kilometers on a single charge, will operate in Bangkok as a premium taxi service. BYD aims to introduce 1,000 pure electric taxis in Thailand by 2019, with the first hundred scheduled to hit the streets this month. Thailand has introduced policies ranging from tariff to corporate income tax cuts to boost the production and use of electric cars in the country."
BYD e6 100% electric taxi
Source
BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY)
BMW is currently ranked the number 2 global electric car manufacturer with
9% global market share. BMW is number 1 in Europe with
17% market share.
On March 21 Electrek
reported, "BMW to unveil a series of new all-electric vehicles this year: iX3, iNEXT, and more. Harald Krüger, BMW’s CEO: “Over the course of the year, we will present a number of pure-electric concept vehicles that will all go into series production, like: The first all-electric BMW – the iX3. Our new technology flagship, the BMW iNEXT, the captivating BMW i Vision Dynamics, which I just announced in Geneva as the BMW i4. We will produce both the iNEXT and the BMW i4 in Germany. These models are proof of our innovative strength.” With the fifth generation of eDrive, our vehicles will be able to drive 550 to 700 kilometres on electric power, depending on the model. "
Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) (OTC:BCCMY, HK:1958), Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. [SAIC] (CH:600104)
BAIC is currently ranked the number 2 selling electric car manufacturer in China with
20% market share, and the global number 3 with
8% market share.
On February 25 4-traders
reported, "Baic Motor Corporation and Daimler AG are planning to co-invest more than 11.9 billion yuan ($1.88 billion) to build a new local production base for their joint venture, Beijing Benz Automative, Baic said on Sunday. In a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange dated Feb. 23, Baic said the new factory would manufacture various Mercedes-Benz products in China including "new energy electric vehicles" equipped with "high quality premium automobile manufacturing system to further improve the overall production capacity of Beijing Benz."
Renault (OTC:RNSDF) / Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) / Mitsubishi (OTCPK:MSBHY, OTCPK:MMTOF)
Nissan is currently ranked number 4 for global electric car sales with
7%market share, and Renault is ranked global number 10 with
4% market share.
On March 23 Reuters
reported, "Nissan sees electric car sales surging to one million annually by 2022. Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) announced plans to sell 1 million electric vehicles (EVs) annually by 2022, a six-fold jump from what it sold last year, and said it had no plans to stop testing its self-driving cars on public roads, calling them safe. Nissan said on Friday it would develop eight new all-battery EVs over the next five years, including four models for China. Its luxury Infiniti brand would begin carrying new electric models from 2021, it added. Through 2022, vehicles powered by its “e-Power” gasoline-hybrid technology would likely comprise the majority of Nissan’s electric line-up, it said. Such vehicles use gasoline to power the car’s motor, requiring a much smaller battery than EVs and therefore are less expensive to produce."
On March 27 Green Car Reports
reported, "Nissan, Sumitomo open electric-car battery recycling plant in Japan." In February Reuters
reported, "China puts responsibility for battery recycling on makers of electric vehicles."
On March 29 Bloomberg
reported, "Nissan, Renault in talks to merge, create new company. Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co. are in talks to merge, seeking to solidify their two-decade-old alliance under a single stock as an unprecedented shift toward electric and shared cars transforms the industry, people with knowledge of the matter said."
The new 2018 Nissan Leaf - Has a five-digit long waiting list
Source
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla is currently ranked the number 1 electric car seller in the US with
28%market share, and the number 5 globally with
7% global market share.
On March 26 Electrek
reported, "FedEx orders 20 Tesla Semi electric trucks to use in its freight fleet. FedEx is adding itself to the increasingly long list of companies ordering Tesla Semi electric trucks in order to replace their diesel trucks in their ‘FedEx Freight’ fleet. Last year,
UPS ordered 125 electric trucksfrom Tesla."
On March 30 Green Car Reports
reported, "Tesla recalls 123,000 Model S electric cars over steering-bolt corrosion."
Volkswagen Group (OTCPK:VLKAY) / Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) / Porsche (OTCPK
OAHF)
Volkswagen is currently ranked the number 6 top-selling global electric car manufacturer with
6% market share. In Europe Volkswagen is the number 2 electric car seller with a
16% market share.
On March 5 Electrek
reported, "VW unveils new ID electric sedan: 111 kWh battery pack, self-driving, and more. There’s the I.D., which is a Golf-sized vehicle expected to be their first mass-market EV in 2020, there’s also the crossover all-electric I.D. CROZZ Concept, and then there’s the I.D. BUZZ electric microbus coming in 2022. VW says that the vehicle is equipped with a dual motor powertrain with a total output of 225 kW. The motors are powered by a massive 111 kWh battery pack, which is more energy capacity than any passenger electric car currently available. VW claims that it will result in “a driving range of up to 665 kilometres (413 miles) when braking regeneration is factored in.”
VW ID electric sedan - due out 2020
Source
On March 8 Caixin
reported, "Volkswagen Picks Chinese Battery-Maker in EV Push. Volkswagen has picked China’s largest electric-car battery-maker, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL), to supply batteries in its acceleration in the hot electric-vehicle market. Volkswagen Group China’s public relations department confirmed the decision to Caixin on Wednesday. The German auto giant said it will add other battery suppliers for its ambitious EV plan in the future. Volkswagen’s first pure electric model equipped with CATL batteries will hit market this year. The partnership is part of Volkswagen’s plan to launch 80 new electric car models by 2025 and offer a hybrid or all-electric version of all 300 models it produces by 2030."
On March 13 Bloomberg
reported, "VW secures $25 billion battery supplies in electric-car surge. Volkswagen secures battery supplies for two biggest markets. Volkswagen AG secured 20 billion euros ($25 billion) in battery supplies to underpin an aggressive push into electric cars in the coming years. The world’s largest carmaker will equip 16 factories to produce electric vehicles by the end of 2022, compared with three currently, Volkswagen said Tuesday in Berlin. The German manufacturer’s plans to produce as many as 3 million electric cars a year by 2025 is backstopped by deals with battery suppliers in Europe and China. In total, the Wolfsburg-based automaker has said it plans to purchase about
50 billion euros in batteries as part of its electric-car push, which includes three new models in 2018 with dozens more following. From next year, the 12 brand group will roll out a new electric vehicle “virtually every month,” Chief Executive Officer Matthias Mueller said at the company’s annual press conference. “This is how we intend to offer the largest fleet of electric vehicles in the world. As part of Volkswagen’s 20 billion-euro push into electric cars it’s setting up a standalone I.D. sub-brand for battery-powered vehicles. The first model will be the Neo hatchback that goes on sale in 2020. The Audi luxury marque is set to begin deliveries later this year of the all-electric E-Tron SUV.”
Toyota (NYSE:TM)
Toyota is currently ranked the number 8 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking, with
4% global market share.
On March 5 Green Car Reports
announced, "Toyota details next-generation hybrids, more efficient gasoline engines." The chart below gives a summary of where Toyota sees the industry going. By 2030 Toyota sees plug in hybrids (PHV) (shown in green shading) dominating total car market share.
Source
General Motors/Chevrolet (NYSE:GM)
GM/Chevrolet is currently ranked the number 2 ranked electric car seller in the US with
15% market share. They are currently the number 11 global electric car manufacturer.
On March 8 GM
announced, "GM’s path to an all-electric, zero emissions future. GM to increase production of Chevrolet Bolt EV. GM Chairman and CEO, Mary Barra: “We have the ambition, the talent and the technology to create a world with zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion.”
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (OTCPK:GELYY, HK:0175), Volvo Group (OTCPK:VOLVY), Kandi Technologies Group (NASDAQ:KNDI), Proton, Lotus
On March 21 Reuters
reported, "High speed: China's Geely 2017 net profit soars amid global push.... Profits more than doubled in 2017, driven by strong domestic sales of popular SUVs."
Daimler-Mercedes (OTCPKDAIF, OTCPKDAIY) (Smart)
On March 28 Daimler
announced: "BMW Group and Daimler AG agree to combine mobility services. Ecosystem for on -demand mobility: single source for CarSharing, ride-hailing, parking, charging and multimodality."
Ford (NYSE:F)
On March 22 Ford
announced, "Mahindra and Ford sign MoUs to co-develop midsize and compact SUV, electric vehicle and connected car solutions. The two companies signed five new memoranda of understanding (MoU) that further strengthen their strategic alliance and accelerate the development of key products for consumers in India and emerging markets. The MoUs, which are non-binding, mark the progress made by the two companies since announcing their alliance in September 2017. Mahindra Group and Ford Motor Company will jointly develop new SUVs, and a small electric vehicle."
Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU)
On March 12 The Drive
reported, "FCA admits underestimating the rise of electric cars was a "mistake." "In China, for example, we have made a number of mistakes in the past and underestimating new energy vehicles in the market has been one," said Marchionne in an interview with
Just Auto, "We are looking at that."
Tata Motors (TTM) group (Jaguar, Land Rover)
On March 1 Electrek
reported, "Jaguar officially unveils production version of all-electric I-Pace: 240-mile range, 100 kW charging, and more. Jaguar has officially unveiled its production version of its first all-electric vehicle: the I-Pace. Owners will be able to achieve a 0-80 percent battery charge in around 40 minutes using publicly available 100kW DC rapid charging facilities." It will have a 90 kWh battery.
Jaguar I-Pace
Source
GreenPower Motor Company Inc. [TSXV:GPV] (OTCQX:GPVRF)
On March 5 Seeking Alpha author David Jennings wrote - "
GreenPower Pulling Ahead In 2018." Some highlights of the article include: "2017 was a ground breaking year for GreenPower as they achieved regulatory approvals, introduced new bus models, secured orders, and began construction of their new factory in Porterville, CA. GreenPower made the strategic decision to enter the electric school bus market and will be making their first deliveries in the summer of 2018."
Autonomous Driving/Car Play and IT connectivity
Currently, Alphabet Inc. (
GOOG,
GOOGL) and Tesla are leaders in autonomous vehicles. Note that the new Model 3 will come as standard with wifi. Apple (NASDAQ:
AAPL) is doing well with on-board entertainment Apple Play, as is Google with Android Auto. Nvidia (NASDAQ:
NVDA) is a leader in supplying GPU chips for modern cars at various levels of autonomy and safety, and AMD (
AMD) and Intel (
INTC) are also involved in this area. Alibaba (
BABA) has teamed up with SAIC to make an "internet car."
All the above should benefit from the switch to EVs and higher-tech vehicles.
On March 30 The Verge
reported, "Tesla says Autopilot was engaged during fatal Model X crash. Tesla says Autopilot was engaged at the time of a deadly Model X crash that occurred March 23rd in Mountain View, California. The company
posted a statement online late Friday,
after local news reported that the victim had made several complaints to Tesla about the vehicle’s Autopilot technology prior to the crash in which he died. After recovering the logs from the crash site, Tesla acknowledged that Autopilot was on, with the adaptive cruise control follow distance set to a minimum. The company also said that the driver, identified as Apple engineer Wei “Walter” Huang, had his hands off the steering wheel and was not responding to warnings to re-take control." Tesla stated:
Tesla Autopilot does not prevent all accidents – such a standard would be impossible – but it makes them much less likely to occur. It unequivocally makes the world safer for the vehicle occupants, pedestrians and cyclists. No one knows about the accidents that didn’t happen, only the ones that did. The consequences of the public not using Autopilot, because of an inaccurate belief that it is less safe, would be extremely severe. There are about 1.25 million automotive deaths worldwide. If the current safety level of a Tesla vehicle were to be applied, it would mean about 900,000 lives saved per year. We expect the safety level of autonomous cars to be 10 times safer than non-autonomous cars.
Investors may like to read my article "
Companies to benefit from the future smart car boom."
Other EV companies
Other EV companies I'm following include Byton (private), Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (private), Faraday Future, Fisker (private), Groupe PSA (owner of Peugeot), Hyundai (
OTC:HYMTF), Honda (
HMC,
OTCPK:HNDAF), Kia (
OTC:KIMTF), Lamborghini, Lucid Motors (formerly Atieva) (private), Mahindra & Mahindra (
OTC:MAHDY), Mazda (
OTCPK:MZDAY), Nio (formerly NextEV), Rivian (private), Subaru (
OTCPK:FUJHY), WM Motor, Xiaopeng Motors, and Zhi Dou (private).
The list of countries and cities banning (or soon to ban) petrol and diesel vehicles include at least - UK (2040), China, Germany, France (2040), Netherlands (2030), London, Paris (2030), Stuttgart, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens. Added to this are countries pushing hard to become 100% EV - Norway and India.
Conclusion
February 2018 global electric car sales were up 43% on February 2017. It is interesting to see on the manufacturers table those companies that are fully committed to electric cars are doing the best and make up the top six on the leader board (BYD, BMW, BAIC, Nissan, Tesla, Volkswagen). GM perhaps being the exception right now. Those still clinging to the past (Ford, Fiat Chrysler, and even Toyota) are being left behind. For example Toyota embracing a hybrid future will prove rather silly by 2024 (2022 on my model) when electric cars are cheaper than ICE vehicles. Certainly the Chinese, American and German manufacturers are leading the Japanese (except Nissan) and Koreans by a fair margin.
My highlights for the month were:
- Bloomberg - "The next ferry you board might run on batteries."
- Electric Vehicle News - "Electric planes to race from London to Darwin in 2019."
- Bloomberg - "Electric cars may be cheaper than gas guzzlers in seven years" (2024/2025).
- Volkswagen news - "VW secures $25 billion battery supplies in electric-car surge. From next year, the 12 brand group will roll out a new electric vehicle “virtually every month....3 million electric cars a year by 2025."
- Volkswagen unveils new ID electric sedan with a 111 kWh battery pack and up to 665 kilometres (413 miles) of range. BMW also plans new fully electric models with 550 to 700 kilometres of range.
It looks like 2018 will not only see more electric cars sold, but we will see electrification expand across the entire transport sector including e-buses, e-bikes, e-trucks, e-monorails, e-ships and even e-planes.
In 2019 we will see even more electric car models with longer ranges, as manufacturers rush to meet the 2019 China ZEV credits system.
As usual, all comments are welcome.
Disclosure: I am/we are long BYD CO (HK:1211), ALPHABET GOOGLE (GOOG).
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal financial advice.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
