Let's look at some numbers.
If we are to believe the company spin, then they are on the verge of expanding and producing/selling 400Kton/annum of product.
From previous info/posters etc let's assume a margin of $25 per ton.
Let's assume a modest market PE of 10
Even with all of the shares that are going to get issued, the share price should be at 2.9c.
(400,000x25x10)/3410000000=$0.0293 per share
Lets assume 2.5c which was the FS initial cap raise.
0.025 x 3410000000 = implied Market Cap of $85.25Mil after dilution and assume they achieve what they promise.
In a normal free market , surely you would expect the price to reflect this expectation and belief?
And yet the price and market cap are nowhere near this.
It seems that the "market" does not believe this is going to happen given the current price.
The price appears to have been relentlessly pushed down to 1.4c .... we all feel it.
And with the hundreds of millions of shares issued at such a cheap price,
it screams to me that the Company also does not believe this is going to happen.
At 1.4c it seems no-one believes the Company can even sell half of the projected 400Kt.
Who the hell is going to buy into this if the instos/magna/s3 are given massive parcels and loaded to the gills????
I suspect they will just dump all they have onto any buyer that comes along......as has happened so many times in the past.
Let's look further....
IF IF IF the Current price of 1.4c holds after the dilution , then implied market cap will be.
3410000000x0.014=$47.74Mil
If they consolidate at the current price then we have,
47740000/230000000=$0.2075 per share.
Do we really believe/trust that this will happen ?
To match the expectation of the full 400kt being produced/sold/achieved then the market cap should be $85.25mil, which after consolidation should give,
85250000/230000000=$0.37 per share.
Do we really believe that the price is going to go from 20c to almost double that after consolidation?
Do we REALLY believe that they are ACTUALLY GOING TO DO AS THEY HAVE PROMISED ???????
Given all of the history to date, I have very very serious reservations.
As many others have suggested , this looks like another rinse and repeat fleecing exercise of us poor retail investors.
NSL Price at posting:
1.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)